Introduction
Substance and Action on Issues
Weekly Commentary
Fighting for Freedom
DDT and Malaria
  Ordering Information
Ordering by Internet
Order by Mail: Order Form
  Vol. 26, No. 5 - 1/99
Technological Optimism
Confirmation of the Bottom
Trillion Dollar Gorilla?
An Elemental Victory
Educational Bottom
Erosion of a Lie
Chemical Hormesis
Petr Beckmann Publications
Last Page
  Vol. 26, No. 4 - 12/98
Year 2000 Preparation
State Sponsored Religion
From Technology to Mysticism
Population Implosion
Petition Project
Last Page
  Vol. 26, No. 3 - 11/98
Science 1999
Gleaning American Science
Solar Bear Market?
Mathematical Politics
Food and Degenerative Disease
Last Page
  Vol. 26, No. 2 - 10/98
Truth, Science, and a Free Nation
Immunizing Young Adults
Disruptive Technology
Highway Carnage
Last Page
  Vol. 26, No. 1 - 9/98
Misinformation
Books vs. 'Books'
Sell Academia Short
Last Page
  Vol. 25, No. 12 - 8/98
2000 Manias
The Sun is Warm
Deflation
Cool It
Life-Saving Technology
Last Page
  Related Sites
Deamidation Data
Robinson Curriculum
Civil Defense Perspectives/DDP
Nutrition and Cancer
Henty Collection
Access to Energy
Nuclear War Survival Skills
Anti-Global Warming Petition
Oregon Institute of Science and Medicine
  Issues
Vol. 22, No. 5
Vol. 22, No. 6
Vol. 22, No. 7
Vol. 22, No. 8
Vol. 22, No. 9
Vol. 22, No. 10
Vol. 22, No. 11
Vol. 22, No. 12
Vol. 23, No. 1
Vol. 23, No. 2
Vol. 23, No. 3
Vol. 23, No. 4
Vol. 23, No. 5
Vol. 23, No. 6
Vol. 23, No. 7
Vol. 23, No. 8
Vol. 23, No. 9
Vol. 23, No. 10
Vol. 23, No. 11
Vol. 23, No. 12
Vol. 24, No. 1
Vol. 24, No. 2
Vol. 24, No. 3
Vol. 24, No. 4
Vol. 24, No. 5
Vol. 24, No. 6
Vol. 24, No. 7
Vol. 24, No. 8
Vol. 24, No. 9
Vol. 24, No. 10
Vol. 24, No. 11
Vol. 24, No. 12
Vol. 25, No. 1
Vol. 25, No. 2
Vol. 25, No. 3
Vol. 25, No. 4
Vol. 25, No. 5
Vol. 25, No. 6
Vol. 25, No. 7
Vol. 25, No. 8
Vol. 25, No. 9
Vol. 25, No. 10
Vol. 25, No. 11
  Related Sites
Robinson Curriculum
Access to Energy
Anti-Global Warming Petition
Civil Defense Perspectives
Nuclear War Survival Skills
Oregon Institute of Science...
   
Access to Energy
Vol. 23, No. 3
 • Technology and Lifespan
 • NUCLEAR POWER
 • TURNING UP THE HEAT
 • RENEWABLE OIL FIELDS
 • ELECTRICAL LUBRICATION
 • ELECTRONIC UNIVERSITIES
 • STARK RAVING MAD
 • GOOD READING

TopPreviousNext

Technology and Lifespan

Public debate about technology and lifespan usually emphasizes the high-tech procedures of crisis medicine and the relative merits of their use. Human interest stories about individual children saved at very great expense by the miracles of modern medicine keep the public convinced that all is well at the leading edge of health research.

Simultaneously, controversy rages about the delivery of life-prolonging technology at the other end of life. There is not enough money to deliver the current "miracles'' to everyone. The political purveyors of the politics of envy argue, therefore, that no one (except themselves) should be allowed to utilize this technology just because he can afford it or because he can afford old-age medical insurance. Hence, the current "plan'' that puts all older Americans under a government system that either rations medical care directly or else delegates this rationing to corporations.

Technology does have a major impact on lifespan, but this effect is largely unrelated to expensive medical techniques.

The lifespans of most of the citizens of Ancient Rome were entirely independent of age. Figure 1, from the 1995 Taylor Lecture by A. M. Kellerer, Health Physics 69, pp 446-453 (1995) with data by J. Cairns,

Entwicklung der Mortalität. In: Mannheimer Forum 85/86. Mann-heim: Boehringer, 49-94 (1986), Figure 1 gives the probability of a five-year-old child reaching a specified age.

Half of the five-year-old children in Ancient Rome were dead before the age of 20. Their lifespan curve decays with a constant probability of death so high that few people achieve ages where physiological deterioration limits their lifespans.

The life-extending technology that these Romans lacked was primarily related to hygiene and simple procedures for the control of disease epidemics. All roads led to Rome, and the diseases of the ancient world traveled those roads. In the Roman colonies where there were fewer such roads and a lower population density, lives were longer. They were still short, however, compared with the USA today, where technology provides hygiene and other improvements in life.

These technological gifts are reversible. Russian State Statistics as given by Michael Specter of the New York Times News Service show a decline in the life expectancies for Russian men from about 64 years to about 57 years between 1990 and 1994. This drop in lifespans parallels the sharp drop in Russian technological output. See, for example, Access to Energy 22 No. 8, p 4, concerning the increase in epidemics of disease during recent Russian chaos.

Within the United States itself, the average lifespan of homosexuals is about 40 years (see Access to Energy 22 No. 6 p 3). AIDS is estimated to be causing a 3-year drop in homosexual life expectancyfor those afflicted. Lack of hygiene, increased exposure to diseases, and the drug culture which are predominant in this community (not, of course, for all individuals) are probably causing the rest.

Figure 1 shows that lifespan in the United States is now being limited primarily by time-dependent increased probability of death from physiological causes - aging. Still, the area in the figure above the USA line includes many younger people who are unnecessarily deprived of many years of life along with the older citizens who should be living productive, healthful lives to greater ages.

We say "unnecessarily deprived'' because technology now makes possible some low-cost major advances beyond hygiene and epidemic disease control. For example, routine metabolic profiling coupled with individualized nutritional and lifestyle modifications could add many productive years of life.

The key is low individual cost. High-cost crisis medicine reaches fewer people and is of less benefit to each person than is low-cost preventive medicine.

Why then are most of our technologists working on high-cost techniques and neglecting low-cost ideas? The reason is tax-financed government failure.

First, most non-profit health research is now government funded or controlled. Cost is a very unimportant concern to the mindless bureaucracies that determine health research priorities based on fad and fashion within the review system. As research priorities sink to the lowest common denominator of government review committees, expensive methods seem to predominate.

Second, government overregulation of the private health industry is also biased toward high cost. With several hundred million dollars and years of red tape required for FDA approval of one new product, private industry cannot develop low-cost products. Very high costs are necessary to pay government-imposed regulatory expenses.

So - we have government bureaucrats rationing health care and deciding who shall live and who shall die because expensive modern medicine cannot be afforded for everyone. Meanwhile, the development of low-cost technology for the further extension of lifespan through preventive medicine is retarded and left largely to the under-funded and chaotic "alternative medicine'' subculture where good and bad ideas alike seldom receive adequate evaluation.

Imagine where we would be if the National Institutes of Health and the FDA controlled the development of computer technology.

This is a life-and-death matter that confronts every one of us. Wealth is no protection. Undeveloped medical technology cannot be purchased at any price, and high-cost crisis medicine is a poor substitute. Most of us will have shorter lives filled with substantially greater personal suffering as a result of tax-financed inhibition of technology.

 


TopPreviousNext

NUCLEAR POWER

Providing for the energy needs of several billion people is definitely an adult activity. The cute toys of the enviros and other countercultur-ists make pretty four-color spreads in magazine articles, but they are dwarfed into insignificance by the real power consumption of human civilization. It is, however, a special tragedy of our time that their toys became politically correct and, coupled with the politics of fear, managed to retard sensible power development during the past generation. Even if these political problems were entirely solved now, it would require decades to correct the damage that has already been done -damage that has exacted a terrible price in human lives.

There is, nevertheless, gradual progress. Figure 2 is from the International Atomic Energy Agency Bulletin 37, No. 2, p 45 (1995) and gives the range of IAEA projections for nuclear power generation over the next 20 years. The narrow range of estimates during the initial years reflects the lead time necessary to construct nuclear power plants. The wide range of estimates thereafter reflects uncertainties in demand, finances, and public attitudes toward nuclear power.

Page 53 of the same IAEA Bulletin gives the world generation of nuclear power as of December 1994. There are 432 operating nuclear power plants and 48 under construction. The United States has 109 with one under construction. Percentages of electricity generated from nuclear power for countries having more than 1% are:

Lithuania

76.4 %

Ukraine

28.9 %

France

75.3 %

Czech Republic

28.2 %

Belgium

55.8 %

Japan

27.2 %

Sweden

51.1 %

United Kingdom

25.8 %

Slovak Republic

49.1 %

United States

22.0 %

Bulgaria

45.6 %

Canada

19.1 %

Hungary

43.7 %

Argentina

13.8 %

Slovania

38.0 %

Russia

11.4 %

Switzerland

36.8 %

South Africa

5.7 %

Republic of Korea

35.5 %

Netherlands

4.9 %

Spain

35.0 %

Mexico

3.5 %

China - Taiwan

33.5 %

China - Mainland

1.5 %

Finland

29.5 %

India

1.4 %

Germany

29.3 %

   
 


TopPreviousNext

TURNING UP THE HEAT

It all sounded great at the international conferences. Junketing at public expense while crying crocodile tears about the whole earth and simultaneously raising one's income from tax-financed grants seemed to be a double winner - and there was just enough hypothetical science to provide colorable camouflage for the whole exercise.

Then the political power brokers and their owners weighed in, especially those with grandiose dreams of world control, since any excuse for manipulation of people on a world scale looked good to them. Their shills in the press took up the cause and the grants grew even larger and came with the added perk of public notoriety.

Now, however, things are turning a little unpleasant. The power brokers, you see, meant business and have been passing laws based on the hypotheses in the research grant proposals - especially those about ozone holes and global warming. They do not seem to realize that such hypotheses are proffered primarily to keep tax money flowing to research and are often of little substance. After all, medical research grants have been able to promise pie in the sky without delivering. Why should the enviros be held to an accounting?

As the effects of these new laws - replacement of all the refrigeration equipment in the world and an end to the expanded use of hydrocarbon fuels and other technology that is needed to maintain and improve human lives - have begun to be felt, a much harder look is being taken at the underlying hypotheses and relevant scientific data. Moreover, unlike the tens of millions of people who lost their lives when DDT was banned, many of those affected by the ozone and global warming scams are strong enough to be heard.

Not to worry, say the power brokers, people will believe whatever we tell them through their TV sets and newspapers. The big lie technique will save us. Data does not matter. Get a bunch of enviro scientists together, and we'll claim they represent all scientists - most of the others will keep quiet or lose their grants. We'll ignore the rest. This, however, is not working. Truth and information spread easily today.

So, the globalists are panicked. Award of the Nobel Prize in Chemistry to three of the ozone gurus is one indication of this. Previously, political statements were largely restricted to the Nobel Prize for Peace which, regardless of occasional worthy recipients, has become widely recognized as primarily a political tool. It is sickening to see the science prizes being used in this fashion.

Henning Rodhe, a member of the Swedish Academy that awarded the prize, was quoted by Associated Press on October 11 as saying, "I personally hope that the Nobel prize will put some pressure on the participants. The timing of the prize is good in view of the Vienna meeting [a meeting in November to review a U.N. agreement to restrict use of CFCs].'' Maybe the ozone gurus should be given the Peace Prize, too. The peace of the grave will doubtless be enjoyed by the many people who die prematurely from the effects of junk science run amuck.

(We do not mean that atmospheric science is junk or that careful studies of ozone or even of the hypothesis about CFCs should not be done. It is the self-interested exaggerations and falsehoods [with no corrective effort by these "prize winners''] with which this cause has been surrounded that are junk. Moreover, the science of the matter certainly does not deserve the Nobel Prize in Chemistry.) Other indicators of panic abound. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change is quoted as four-square for the Chicken Little predictions on global warming and very widely so reported in the press - on the basis of a leaked draft labeled "DRAFT, FOR INTERNAL USE ONLY, DO NOT CITE/DISTRIBUTE.'' This draft deals solely with impacts and response options - all of the scientific data and evaluations are in another, still confidential document. (See R. C. Balling, The Wall Street Journal, October 16, 1995, p A14.)

Graphs of ozone decreases are appearing frequently in the press. These graphs are often "corrected'' for solar effects and other truths that might confuse the reader, and they are smoothed to prevent display of ordinary variability. Also, the vertical axes are always adjusted so that a very small part of the vertical scale is visible. See Access to Energy 21-3, November 1993, p 4, for a graph of world ozone levels showing the entire vertical axis, which removes cause for alarm.

The ozone level is supposed to worry us because lower ozone might allow more UV light to fall on us with a concomitant increase in skin cancer. While this is mostly a sham risk, the UV levels themselves are relevant. Since American research to measure these levels in the United States were terminated [after it was discovered that levels were actually fluctuating downward - an embarrassment to the ozone pan-demicists] along with the government career of the chief scientist at DOE after he suggested resumed UV measurement, the press treats us to UV graphs from Antarctica. It has been known for decades (even before release of CFCs) that levels of ozone and UV light fluctuate wildly in Antarctica. (See Access to Energy 21-1, p 4 and 21-5, pp 1-3.)

With UV light as the claimed danger from reduced ozone, one would think that the multibillion dollar global ozone research crowd would have UV monitors all over the United States. They are not, however, looking for truth. In fact, they are looking for fame and continued fortune studying underlying processes that can be hypothesized to affect UV light. (Actually, I wonder if they have some UV monitors quietly watching for the next natural upward fluctuation in UV - it will not fluctuate downward forever - before holding a press conference.) Meanwhile, the replacements for CFCs in refrigeration are now coming under enviro attack (see Nature 376 "CFC alternatives under a cloud'' by S. E. Schwarzbach, pp 297-298 and T. K. Tromp, et al, pp 327-330); supersonic transportation is being described as an ozone menace (see "SST emissions cut stratospheric ozone'' by R. Lipkin, Science News 148 p 229); and K. Coale and colleagues are worried that their experiments showing ocean phytoplankton fertilization by added iron could be used to mitigate the global warming frenzy (see "Iron versus the Greenhouse'' by R.

Monastersky, Science News 148 pp 220-222). Too many enviros are clamoring for a unique place at the public trough at a time when the public is already surly over the prospect of losing its refrigeration.

Even more cold water is being thrown on the global warming welfare system for mediocre and honesty-for-sale "scientists.'' Figures 3-5 are from World Climate Report 1, No. 1 pp 3-4, P. O. Box 455, Ivy, VA 22945, and Figure 6 is from the weather issue of Kids Discover magazine. See also many back issues of Access to Energy.

CO2 and other greenhouse gases have risen substantially during the past 15 years, but global temperatures show no indications of significant rise. Figure 3 shows Antarctic temperatures normalized to 0 for the past four decades. Other regions are comparable, but Ant-arctica has been claimed to be a special case, since the enviros have recently discovered that icebergs are made in Antarctica. Each new large iceberg is now greeted with wails of concern about melting ice.

Notice that there was an upward fluctuation (from an unusually cold period) in temperature in the 1960s. As a result of this fluctuation, no doubt S. Schneider at Stanford and his fellow travelers are nervously awaiting the next Nobel awards - hoping fervently that few will notice that this warming preceded the greatest increase in release of greenhouse gases. Temperatures have not risen over the past 15 years.

Figures 4 and 5 show the temperature values from hemispheric averages of satellite data. This data is superior to ground measurements, which tend to be affected by the amount of nearby human activity. The open circles show the actual data, while the closed circles show the temperature predicted by the global climate change models upon which the greenhouse gurus base their Noble hopes.

If we pump enough CO2 into the atmosphere, we will probably eventually have enough warming to detect. Why worry about this? Much of humanity lives now in regions that are uncomfortably cold, so a little higher average temperature (with annual fluctuations still much larger than any likely systematic rise) would probably be welcomed.

So far, the enviro answer to this has been more theoretical calculations by the same models that cannot reliably predict past temperature averages. They predict dryness where it is already dry, more rain for regions that already have enough, and generally worse conditions -somehow things never seem to be predicted as better anywhere. With skills provided by socialized education math programs, however, most people's eyes glaze over when considering these fancy calculations.

As a substitute, the enviros hope that, since many people live in coastal areas, fear of rising ocean levels will work. Careful research has not detected an increase in ocean levels, and, in any case, even the models predict at most small, slow sea level rises affecting only a few regions and easily countered by modest dikes.

Figure 6 shows the utter dishonesty with which these facts are being presented to American children. There is, so far, no greenhouse-caused detectable rise in global temperature or in sea level. The weather issue of Kids Discover magazine portrays these facts with a colored figure showing ocean waves breaking over the Statue of Liberty and a "WARNING! WARNING! about the greenhouse effect.

This fascinating combat between a mob of self-interested liars and the truth is proving to be one of the more interesting spectacles of this generation. The truth will win eventually, but what will be the near term outcome? I think that the enviros are going to lose - even in the near term. The public does not understand much of the scientific argument, but the public understands very well its immediate self-interest. Unfortunately, this will set a poor precedent for any real threats that may need to be countered by unpleasant actions in the future.


TopPreviousNext

RENEWABLE OIL FIELDS

"Scientist suggests some oil reservoirs refilling'' by M. W. Brown, New York Times, in the Houston Chronicle, October 1, 1995, p 9D reports the work of J. K. Whelan from the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institute in Massachusetts. She finds evidence in the composition of oil in some oil fields and also in the rate of depletion of some fields that suggests that these fields are refilling from previously undiscovered oil and gas fields below them.

The new fields are estimated to be more than 30,000 feet deep -below depths currently drilled for oil. K. K. Bissada from Texaco in Houston is quoted as skeptical that this refilling can keep up with current human use, but he thinks it possible that the upper reservoirs that currently serve as a source for oil could be refilled in 10 or 20 years -which is comparable to current emptying times.

It does seem odd that all of the earth's oil fields just happen to be within easy reach of 20th Century drilling techniques. That deeper fields might rise into the empty reservoirs which we create above them would be a fortuitous occurrence indeed.

Even if this turns out to be a rare occurrence, it has value. Think of the nightmares it will give Paul Ehrlich when news reaches Stanford.


TopPreviousNext

ELECTRICAL LUBRICATION

"Managing water and pollutants in soil with electric currents'' by J. Raloff, Science News 148, pp 168-169 (1995), reports about the process of electroosmosis, which has been of interest in agriculture for over 70 years. This article puts an enviro spin on potential use, but the reported phenomenon is remarkable.

The positive charge of mineral ions in soil moisture allows movement of soil water with low voltages and current. For example, a 1924 experiment with a miniature plow connected to a pulley and weights showed that a 4-volt battery could reduce the weight required to pull the plow through soil by a factor of more than ten-fold. Reversal of polarity increased the normal weight required by more than two-fold.

More recently, on a practical scale, it was demonstrated that pile drivers required one third as many blows to drive piles through soil with appropriately connected electrodes, and energy requirements for real plows on tractors were similarly reduced by up to 40%.

Water is attracted to the implement by the applied voltage. This water then lubricates the steel and facilitates its passage through soil. A similar phenomenon allows rock drills to penetrate rock at double the ordinary speed by application of 5 to 10 volts and less than 1 ampere.

Electrodes can also move water which contains fertilizer into tubes in the soil. Some experimenters are investigating the possibility that nitrate fertilizers might be concentrated near plant roots and then extracted from the field for reuse by means of electroosmosis attachments to drip irrigation systems.


TopPreviousNext

ELECTRONIC UNIVERSITIES

"Electronics and the Dim Future of the University'' by E. M. Noam, Science 270, pp 247-249 (1995), raises the question of whether or not universities will survive the information revolution. We expect that those that respond to the growing demand for remote electronic degrees and that retrace their steps toward the quality lost over the past three decades will survive. The others will deservedly perish.

The 35-year-old barber in Cave Junction recently remarked to me that he is now half way through college and expects to have a PhD before he retires. He then explained that, although he graduated only from high school, his high school work is now the equivalent of two years of college. As colleges deteriorate, his educational level automatically advances. The terrible truth is that this barber is right.

Universities exist to create, preserve, and transmit information. Private university tuition fees are now about $50 per lecture hour - often for lectures of questionable worth. The information revolution will demand quality - delivered remotely, quickly, and inexpensively.


TopPreviousNext

STARK RAVING MAD


TopPreviousNext

GOOD READING



Copyright © 2001 Access to Energy