| Vol. 23, No. 7 |
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During 1995, the United States government spent an estimated $71 billion on programs labeled "research and development.'' "Planning the Budget for This Year and Last'' by T. Adler in
Science News 149 , p. 86 (1996), reports that this included $38 billion for national defense and $33 billion for "nondefense.'' The nondefense expenditures were spread over agencies labeled health, science, agriculture, interior, transportation, environment, and commerce. About half was for health and about 10 % was for basic science.Expenditures for defense are, of course, justified by the Constitutional requirement to provide for the common defense. After 50 years in the nuclear and high technology age, America is still free of foreign domination by force. This fact is largely the result of defense research and development work by our scientists and engineers.
The "nondefense'' expenditures are an entirely separate matter. There is no Constitutional justification whatever for the confiscation of the earnings and savings of men, women, and children by force or threat of force through taxation for nondefense research and development. Over the past few decades, the seizure of private property for this purpose has totaled
over a trillion dollars.The usual critique of this expenditure involves its effects. Government research funds now have such an overwhelming influence in universities and other non-profit institutions that the private funds of those institutions are also spent in accordance with the wishes of a vast horde of politically correct government research bureaucrats. Intellectual freedom has accordingly diminished, output of new knowledge has been stunted, and the actual effect of that trillion dollars has been to retard overall research and development. The fact that pseudosciences like "global warming'' are now running rampant over the political landscape while most scientists are silent indicates how far we have descended as a result of government programs. America has created a giant welfare program for scientists. This welfare program has failed - just as the welfare programs for nonscientists have failed. The science and technology failure is more easily hidden because private enterprise has made substantial advances, which are incorrectly credited to government.
Scientists at universities and non-profit institutions have also made progress - although less than they would have made without the distortions caused by this welfare program. Without the free enterprise options that have been lost, even our Nobel Prize winners must waste much of their time pleading with bureaucrats for support - support that is only given for projects that these bureaucrats favor.
Inefficiency and ineffectiveness are, however, not the most compelling arguments. The fact is that it is morally wrong to steal the property of other people. Our government has no legal or moral justification for this theft. We would probably look with disfavor upon a scientist who obtained his salary and research funds from privately organized crime such as the Mafia - regardless of whether or not he did good scientific work. Why then do we not look with equivalent disfavor upon scientists who obtain their salaries and research funds from publicly organized crime in Washington, DC?
Part of the reason is that, in addition to scientists, a great many other Americans also receive money that they did not earn as a result of the plundering of their neighbor's property by government. In effect, we have all gotten used to living in a very high crime environment. We have stopped asking questions about morality and justice. We just accept the fact that thievery is all around us and spend our time trying to limit our own personal losses.
In addition, our vision is obscured by the torrential rain of tears that is shed upon us by those who receive portions of the tax collector's loot. These are
very sensitive people. They implore us to: Consider the terrible suffering from cancer, heart disease, birth defects, and other maladies. Imagine those who have inadequate food or transportation and insufficient commercial opportunities. Even worse, visualize the suffering of animals, plants, and the environment and of people whose lives are miserable because they suffer psychologically for "planet earth.'' Most of all, consider the children.No atrocity is so great that it cannot be justified by a river of crocodile tears shed for
the children. Children must be free of disease, must be well fed, must be well educated, must be protected from violence (especially spanking and other forms of parental discipline), and must have a future. That future is too important to be left to their parents to build - it must be designed and built by politicians and bureaucrats who have the wisdom and sensitivity to do it correctly.These critical needs have bred a new, superior form of human life. Perhaps there were a few of these specimens in our gene pool all along or, perhaps, we have just been fortunate that they arose in our midst by spontaneous mutation when they were needed. In any case, they are here. They are human beings who speak for those who cannot speak for themselves.
They speak for the children, for the downtrodden and poor, for the sick and helpless, for the animals, for the plants - for the whole earth. Their tears are shed in substitute for those that are not shed by avaricious, unfeeling, and evil people (most Americans). Their tears wash away such minor questions as morality, ethics, and justice. Theirs are the golden tears that make everything right - and nothing wrong - as long as it conforms to their agenda.
Those who shed these tears have become an elite in our society -they do not need to work. They only need to cry. They have built an enormous industry populated by bureaucrats and welfare recipients. They have built that industry upon the backs of the American people whose property they have plundered. It is true that a small portion of their loot makes its way to truly worthy causes. These causes serve as an excuse for their continued thievery.
In the river of irrelevant scientific publications that flows today from government subsidies, there are certainly islands of success. Valuable discoveries have been made with government funds. Are these scientists to be congratulated?
The few who manage to make progress while accepting tax subsidies do so at the expense of the greater progress that would be made in a free economy. They provide propaganda for those with the golden tears. They are the modern alchemists. They have succeeded in turning tears into gold - at the expense of American freedom.
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In considering the ill effects of welfare, critics frequently focus upon its failures and upon the immorality of the theft that supports it. There is also discussion about the negative effects it has upon recipients - who become passively dependent and unable to lead productive lives, and upon "providers'' - who begin to think of themselves as an elite that is superior to the recipients and to the productive people whom they plunder to keep the game going. Less noticed is the ugly turn that welfare often eventually takes in which the recipients actually try to harm the productive people who have provided for them.

This problem seems to arise from a negative aspect of human nature. Even in private charity - which is the honorable way to provide for those who are truly in need - this can occur. As charity continues, the providers sometimes begin to feel superior to the recipients, and the recipients begin to resent the providers. In private charity, however, all is voluntary and the participants are usually in close contact with one another, so these difficulties are manageable.
Public welfare has, of course, more beneficiaries. These include the vast and voracious bureaucracy that administers welfare - welfare for scientists and welfare for pot-smoking back-to-nature hippies who just prefer not to work. Therefore, these welfare programs become ends in themselves. No matter how extensive the difficulties, this bureaucracy is determined to keep the failed system going at all costs.
Perhaps the greatest cost is the deliberate damage eventually done to the productive victims of welfare by some of the welfare recipients themselves. In the Northwest, for example, the destruction of the logging industry has largely been accomplished by agitators who are extensively supported by welfare. These are the people who have time to spike trees, promulgate hate campaigns against the lumber industry, and participate in demonstrations. Antinuclear demonstrators are somewhat similar. Antinuclear protests include a very large proportion of people who are not engaged in productive work.
The elite behind these movements has, however, a larger agenda. The same elite that promulgated the "energy crisis'' in the 1970s promotes the "global warming'' crisis of the 1980s and 1990s.
Their first claim was that we were running out of coal, oil, and natural gas, so there would soon be none to burn. Their new claim is that we are going to burn coal, oil, and natural gas in ever increasing amounts in perpetuity and fry the planet. Simultaneously, they have stunted American progress in nuclear energy by means of false claims about the dangers of nuclear power.
Their agenda has little to do with any of these claims. For many of them, that agenda is the elimination of human beings. The goal is reduction of the earth's human population by means of technological genocide - the reduction of life-supporting technology.
These elitists cannot, however, succeed by themselves. They must have foot soldiers to get the job done. These foot soldiers are now being provided by the giant welfare system that they have built for "scientists.'' For the first several decades of this welfare system, scientists were content to passively participate. Now, however, some of them are beginning to behave in the predictable manner of long-term welfare recipients. They are beginning to bite the hands that feed them.
Now we find welfare-supported scientists willing to elevate tenuous hypotheses with little or no experimental support to the level of "robust'' theories of unquestioned verisimilitude - in order to deliberately destroy the way of life of those whose earnings pay for welfare.
A problem with science, however, is that it still includes a method of thought that is based upon truth. While one is shoveling welfare to the scientific mob, there is no completely reliable way to guard against a discovery that is inconsistent with the political agenda. Moreover, scientists who are playing the desired game may, at any time, revert to their fundamental training and uncover some embarrassing fact.
For this reason, the global environmental scams
must be presented as crises requiring immediate emergency action. It is not the direct claimed danger from ozone destruction or global warming that requires emergency action; it is the danger that, given a little time, scientific facts may arise that discredit these hypotheses altogether.In this context, the global warming crowd recently suffered a very severe setback. After extensive squabbling in which referees modified the paper and tried to suppress it, "Economic and Environmental Choices in the Stabilization of Atmospheric CO
2 Concentrations'' by T. M. L. Wigley, R. Richels, and J. A. Edmonds in Nature 379, pp 240-243, was published. Figures 1 and 2 are adapted from this paper.Wigley,
et al, subscribe to the entire global warming scenario in which computer models that fail to predict past weather and contain only the most rudimentary guesses as to the actual effects of atmospheric release of carbon dioxide from human activity are used to pretend to predict the future with breathtaking precision. Wigley, himself, is one of the lead authors of the recent report by the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change that has been enthusiastically publicized throughout the media in recent months as the most authoritative verification of the looming global warming catastrophe.Alas, Wigley asked one question too many. Assuming that the entire global computer model is correct (nonsense as shown in
AtE 23-06 - but it is this nonsense upon which the global warming facade rests), Wigley calculated the effects of waiting another 10, 20, or 30 years without any control of CO2 emissions at all before taking action. His calculation assumes the worst case scenario adopted by the UN for uncontrolled emissions. The calculation was carried out for ultimate atmospheric CO2 levels of 350 parts per million through 750 ppm.
Figure 1 shows the predicted atmospheric CO2 levels assuming immediate crisis reductions (IPCC) or assuming a wait of 20 years before any reductions (WRE). Figure 2 shows the total amount of CO2 emissions from human activity under the two assumptions. (The line labeled IS92a is the IPCC assumption for CO2 emissions if no action is ever taken. Planners love this sort of apocalyptic scenario.) For a 30-year wait and his recommended level of 550 ppm, Wigley finds that the end result for the global environment is unchanged. Along the way to that UN-created nirvana 300 years from now, there is a difference - of less than 2 inches in sea level and about 0.2° C in temperature. In other words, as Wigley et al conclude, the effect of waiting 30 more years before controlling CO2 emissions, even when one assumes that the entire global warming scenario is correct (which it is not), is so slight as to be not worth significant economic disruption.
A 30-year wait would, of course, be devastating to the global warming industry. Without a crisis, their war-level funding from tax money would decrease and, worse yet, their predictions would need to stand the test of 30 years of future climatological data.
From the Wigley, Richels, Edmonds (WRE) calculation there is no honest escape. From here on, the crisis teams at the UN and the welfare receiving scientists and other unprincipled participants in the multibil-lion dollar global warming crisis business will have to fly on hope. Their fuel tanks are empty. They just must hope that no one notices.
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At the core of every argument about science and technology are certain assumptions upon which the evaluations ultimately rest. Basic science has, for example, a fundamental value in that it raises the quality of human life by allowing people to understand and enjoy the physical world on an increasingly deeper intellectual and emotional level as their knowledge increases. This is one reason that science
should be a substantial part of every person's education.More compelling is the assumption that technology is good because it increases the quality
and the quantity of human life. If we value human life and desire that its quality should be improved, then only the most selfish elitists can argue that the number of high quality human lives and the length of those lives should not also be maximized. We seek to maximize some function of the general form: [quality of human life] x [number of human lives] x [length of human life] = value.Quality and length of life depend, of course, upon number of lives. If there are more people than can be technologically provided for, quality and length decrease. The whole function must be considered.
Where the elitists err is in their assumption that their own lives are of far, far greater value than those of other people. This causes them to write the above function as something like: [quality of life] x [(elite lives) (K) + (ordinary lives)] x [length of life] = value. They put a very high value upon K. From Auschwitz and Dachau to the board rooms of big time pseudoenvironmentalist organizations today, it is this inflation of the value of K that has been used to justify virtually any atrocity.< /FONT >
Elitists often advocate "minimization of suffering'' as a substitute for "maximization of value.'' This leads to the golden tears mentioned on page one, above. "Minimized suffering'' is a functional goal with flawed boundary conditions (except as viewed by those who use a high value of K). After all, one can minimize suffering by just killing everyone - or at least everyone
else except for the elite decision makers.We usually do not express these assumptions explicitly, but they are always there. An individual with the elitist, Auschwitz mentality might read
Access to Energy for a while, but before long this underlying difference in assumptions would repel him. Few such people do read Access to Energy because Petr Beckmann's personal assumptions over a period of 20 years selected against this mentality."Can Technology Spare the Earth? Evolving efficiencies in our use of resources suggests that technology can restore the environment even as population grows'' by J. H. Ausubel in
American Scientist 84, pp 166-178, March-April 1996, gives several examples. One of these relates to farming as shown in Figures 3 and 4 from that paper.Even though world population has continued to grow, the area of farmland planted to grain has been decreasing since about 1980. It is approximately the same as in 1960, as is shown in Figure 4. This has been possible because of technological improvements in farming that have increased the yield of grain per acre as shown in Figure 3. The "spared'' line in Figure 4 shows the amount of farmland that would have been needed had this increase in productivity not taken place. The "spared'' line assumes that productivity per acre remained at 1960 levels.


Anyone who has invested in farmland during the past 35 years is familiar with the effect of this increase in productivity. American farmland increased in real value until about 1980 and has decreased since.
Ausubel calculates the area of farmland that may be required if world population doubles from the current level to a total of about 10 billion. He estimates that a vegetarian diet requires production of about 3,000 calories per person per day, while a diet of meat, milk, and other foods such as that consumed by most Americans requires about 6,000 calories. The difference is calories lost in the production of livestock.
Irish wheat and American corn now yield an average of 8 tons per hectare. He calculates that, if average world productivity rises to just 5 tons per hectare (for reference, see figure 3), the entire 10 billion people can eat an American (6,000 calorie) diet, and one-fourth of current world farmland -
an area the size of Alaska - can be taken out of production. An 8 ton per hectare average idles an area of farmland the size of Australia. The curves in Figure 3 indicate that this is reasonable.This is a wonderful effect of the advance of science and technology - but the elite "environmentalist'' leadership does not agree. They are doing everything possible to diminish technology - including the technology that increases farm yields. Why? Surely they support the reversion of vast tracts of cultivated land to the "natural'' state. The answer is that environmentalism is, to them, only a tool with which to accumulate wealth and power and to
reduce the world population in accordance with their enormous estimates of their own self-importance.Whether or not the issue is nuclear power, chemicals for farm fertilizer and pest control, chlorine and bromine compounds for refrigeration, or the use of coal, oil, and natural gas for power, lubrication and chemical production, underlying assumptions about life divide most scientists and technologists irreconcilably from their enemies. Why can the enviros not see the wonderful benefits of the advance of science and technology in a free-enterprise economy? They cannot see these benefits because, in their world view, these are not benefits at all.
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The January 1996 issue of
Public Opinion, published by the Nuclear Energy Institute, Suite 400, 1776 I Street, N.W. Washington, DC 20006-3708, reports a survey of 1,000 adult Americans by Bruskin Goldring Research in November 1995 on the subject of nuclear power. Of the respondents, 80% replied that nuclear power should be an option for future new power plants, and 72% supported this as an option for their area of the country. However, only 12% replied that we should build new nuclear power plants now, and 44% felt "uneasy'' about the existing nuclear plant nearest to them. Also, 74% considered it important that American manufacturers of nuclear power plants play a leading role in world markets. Few of these people, of course, have any reliable knowledge about nuclear power. Their responses are primarily a measure of the effects of the ongoing propaganda war.The January-February 1996
Uranium Information Centre Newsletter, available from GPO Box 1649N, Melbourne 3001, Australia, reports that seven nuclear power reactors began operation in 1995 - in the United Kingdom, Ukraine, Armenia, South Korea , Japan (2), and India.. They estimate that, by 2005, world mine production of uranium will need to double over that provided by currently existing mines.
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It follows from Newton's laws that the angular momentum of a spinning body, in the absence of outside forces, must be conserved. The mass orbiting a point multiplied by the distance to that point and the velocity of the motion measures angular momentum. This is summed over all the points of mass in an object. Therefore, when a spinning figure skater draws his arms inward, the velocity with which he spins increases because this preserves angular momentum.
Science News
149, p 108 (1996), says that B. F. Chao (December 15, 1995, Geophysical Research Letters) has found effects on the earth's rotation from manmade water reservoirs. The shift in mass caused by 10 trillion tons of water storage in the Northern Hemisphere over the past 40 years has changed the rotation rate of the earth by 8 millionths of a second per day. This storage has the effect of moving mass closer to the axis of spin because much of it is removed from the equatorial oceans. So the earth, like the figure skater, is rotating faster.Moreover, since this rearrangement of mass is not uniform over the globe, it has also increased the rate of drift of the earth's axis of rotation. Since 1940, this effect has "pushed the axis of rotation about 60 centimeters away from the North Pole toward Western Canada'' and "equals 5% of the natural axis drift over the last 100 years.'' Will this become the next environmental crisis? We can imagine the headlines - "Earth wobbling uncontrollably as a result of the stock watering ponds of Western ranchers, Vice-President warns. Loss of trees from equatorial rain forests also a culprit.''
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Nature
379 p 291 (1996) reports that Yasumasa Kanada at Tokyo University now holds the record for accuracy in the calculation of the value of p . In five days of calculation on a HITAC S-3800/480 computer, Kanada determined the value to 6,442,450,000 decimal places.For a fascinating history of this competition over the millennia (including the value to the first 10,000 decimal places), you may wish to order
A History of p by Petr Beckmann from Mrs. Beckmann at Golem Press, Box 1342, Boulder, CO 80306, for $18 postage paid.Another $3 will bring you one of her remaining copies of Petr Beckmann's reprint of
Fancy Napkin Foldings by Kunda Yakoyama.. The cover recommends that you "Fascinate Your Family and Enchant Your Guests'' with these techniques. Your family and your guests will appreciate this artistry from the past.
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