Vol. 24, No. 2 - Access to Energy Newsletter

To a steadily increasing extent, the war that is currently in progress - freedom, science, and technology vs. totalitarianism and an irrational society driven by envy, fear, and mythology - is being reduced to a simple conflict between truth vs. fiction. The outcome of this cultural conflict will determine many things about the future of our civilization - especially the nature of its energy resources.

Although it is tempting to philosophize that truth will eventually prevail, that "eventually'' could be in the far distant future with extensive unnecessary human misery between here and there.

As of September 20, all polls indicate that Clinton-Gore will win the November election by an overwhelming margin. Yet the same polls show that the majority of Americans realize that Bill Clinton is habitually untruthful, while Gore's lack of integrity, measured by his published statements on environmental science, is rivaled only by Clinton's. Although it is not unusual for politicians to lack integrity, these two individuals are worse by orders of magnitude.

Most worrisome, however, is the apparent lack of concern among American women voters. While polls show that American men are evenly split between Clinton-Gore and Dole-Kemp and professional or college-educated men prefer Dole-Kemp by a margin of 12%, two-thirds of American women say that they intend to vote for Clinton-Gore rather than Dole-Kemp or one of other candidates. (See The Wall Street Journal, pp R1 to R6, September 20, 1996.) Can it really be true that two-thirds of American women do not care whether or not the President of the United States is a habitual liar? If so, what is the chance that they will teach their children to value the truth? If a person is not truthful, then reliable communication with him becomes impossible. If children do not tell the truth, why teach them to talk and write? Yet, children learn primarily by example. If their mothers successfully support a liar for President, why should the children be expected to be truthful?

There is supposedly a worldwide debate in progress on the question of "global warming'' - the hypothesis that human release of carbon dioxide will cause a catastrophic rise in global temperature. The Clinton-Gore Administration, which promotes this hypothesis as established fact, is in the process of committing the United States to reductions in the release of carbon dioxide that will severely diminish American living standards and, promoted on a world-wide scale, will mean death to great numbers of people in less-developed countries.

Yet, as the George Marshall Institute has very clearly pointed out, an essential experiment that tests the global warming hypothesis has been carried out. The results of that experiment demonstrate that this hypothesis is erroneous. During the 20th century, atmospheric carbon dioxide levels have risen approximately 80 ppm, but the temperature increase from this rise has been so small that it is barely discernible within ordinary temperature fluctuations (if present at all). The greenhouse effect from carbon dioxide when added to the current earth atmosphere is, therefore, so small that projections of harmful global temperature increases are clearly wrong. (See previous issues of Access to Energy and also testimony on September 17, 1996 to the Committee on Energy and Natural Resources, United States Senate, by Dr. Sallie Baliunas, available from the George C. Marshall Institute, 1730 K Street, N.W., Suite 905, Washington, DC 20006-3868.) Some "scientists'' (most of whom depend upon tax financed global warming research grants) have tried to cloud this issue by pointing to a 0.5 °C increase in temperature that occurred early in the century. Since, however, this temperature increase occurred before 1940 and most of the carbon dioxide increase occurred after 1940, this temperature increase could not have been caused by the carbon dioxide increase which occurred afterwards. The 0.5 °C increase was apparently part of the normally fluctuating earth temperature which, it happens, was higher than now during the Middle Ages - a period of benign climatic conditions.

How is this indisputable logic handled in the press? Consumer Reports, p 40, September 1996, dismisses it by saying, "perfect synchronization is an unrealistic expectation.'' According to Consumer Reports, it is "unrealistic'' to reason that a cause must occur before or during any alleged effect from that cause. It is also unrealistic to believe that writers for Consumer Reports are unable to understand this simple logic. They are evidently telling an untruth in order to deliberately mislead readers who are not carefully evaluating their text.

Even more outrageous is "Global Warming Is the Target of Dis-information Campaign'' by Bette Hileman in Chemical and Engineering News, p 33, August 19, 1996. Hileman claims that satellite measurements which show very little change in atmospheric temperature during the past 17 years should be disregarded because they "are influenced both by the increasing cooling in the stratosphere from increasing ozone depletion and by temperatures at the surface.'' Yet, satellites are also measuring atmospheric ozone concentrations (see, for example, Access to Energy 21 No. 3, p 4 (1993)) and are finding no significant decrease in worldwide ozone levels. The average atmospheric ozone level, except in the very special conditions localized in the Antarctic, fluctuates in a narrow, naturally determined range. Chemical and Engineering News apparently hopes to influence readers who do not know about the results of satellite ozone measurements by compounding one enviro lie with another.

So, restricting the time interval to that following substantial increases in atmospheric carbon dioxide, satellite measurements show no increase in atmospheric temperature, while ground measurements show a very small increase. This sets an upper limit on greenhouse warming that is so small as to be of negligible importance.

Truthful scientists should generally conclude, therefore, that global warming is an insignificant non-problem as far as all experimental measurements to date have determined. Most also conclude that atmospheric measurements should continue, so that this important aspect of the environment is carefully monitored.

Untruthful politicians, self-interested enviro scientists and journalists, and even some unprincipled nuclear power advocates, however, continue to lie to the American people about catastrophic "global warming.'' Truth is an essential ingredient in the glue that holds our civilization together. Without truth, all that has been built by freedom, science, and technology will eventually disintegrate.

Regardless of apparent current political trends, there is actually substantial reason for optimism that truth will prevail in the near term -even truth about such badly mangled subjects as nuclear energy and atmospheric science. The principal reason for this optimism is that computer technology is rapidly destroying all central monopolies on the dissemination of information. Monopolistic control over information has historically been an indispensable aspect of tyranny. It is easy to concoct a lie, but it is not so easy to keep the lie viable in the minds of people unless their sources of information are under tight control. Virtually all tyrannies - whether they involve small groups of people or entire nations - involve mechanisms for the control of information.

This control does not necessarily imply a book-burning police state. Small groups can be controlled simply by instilling a bias against ra dios, computers, "unapproved'' books, and other information sources, and a preference for information supplied selectively by the group's leadership, which, of course, functions only with the best of intentions.

In order to control states and nations, however, it is necessary to control the press and other media and to control educational institutions. While this can be done by direct force as in many communist countries, in more free societies it must be established gradually through economic and political means and by a long process of individual screening so that information sources are largely staffed by those with the desired political biases.

The extreme leftist, anti-free enterprise bias in American educational institutions and news and entertainment media did not arise overnight. It has required generations of work. Now, however, that work is beginning to unravel in a technological maelstrom. There are two computer technologies responsible for this revolution.

The first of these is in the rate at which information can be transferred by means of wires, fiber optic cables, and satellites. The July and August issues of the Gilder Technology Report available from Gilder Technology Group, Inc., Monument Mills, P. O. Box 660, Housatonic, MA 01236, or by telephone toll free at (888) GTG-2727, definitively describe and analyze this advance. (The Gilder Report is, without exception, the very best source of information on computer technology that I have ever read.) George Gilder points out that the initial computer revolution occurred when technological advance made the transistor almost free. This allowed the mass production of equipment containing millions of transistors and thereby the virtual miracles in computing power that are now available at low cost to all Americans.

Now, new advances in electronics are making the real-time communication of information almost free as well. Figure 1, reproduced from the Gilder Technology Report, shows the effect that just the initial phase of this almost free bandwidth (the information capacity of an electronic transmission system) is having on Internet traffic.

This is only the beginning. With emerging technologies that Gilder describes in detail in these newsletters, it will soon be possible to transmit essentially unlimited information at very low cost to almost any location. This capability is so great that the coming generations of computers are expected to have ways of capturing and using this information without requiring that it pass through the central processing units, which are far too slow to keep up with it.

The effect of this revolution will be to give every individual, regardless of his location, the ability to be mentally present at any other location. This freedom of location will transform human affairs and simultaneously destroy the barriers to information transfer that those who trade in the control of people by disinformation require.

The second advance is that of information storage. Current CD-ROM technology allows the storage of about 600 megabytes of information on a plastic disk that can be manufactured for about one dollar and read into an ordinary desk-top computer in a few minutes. One of these disks can hold about 3,000 books as text files or about 50 books as 300 dot per inch image files. New CD-ROMs that are to be marketed late in 1996 or in 1997 will hold about 10 times as much information - about 30,000 books. Fifty dollars worth of these new CD-ROMs can hold a university library of one million books.

CDs, however, only store information in two dimensions. "New Dye Adds Depth to Data Storage by C. Wu in Science News 150, p 148 (1996), describes one of the three-dimensional data storage methods that is being developed. This particular method depends upon a block of material which contains dye molecules that fluoresce after a two-photon absorption. This allows three-dimensional encoding of the location and energy state of the dye molecules. It is estimated that one cubic centimeter (a volume approximately equal to 30 ordinary-sized drops of water and weighing 1/30 of an ounce) of this material could store as much as 1,000 current CD-ROMs - a three million book library. One ounce of this material could store 100 million books as text files. Even using high quality image files (with perhaps simple, uncleaned OCR behind them to allow text search), one ounce would hold 25,000 books or about 400,000 books per pound. Audio and video capacity with appropriate compression is spectacularly large as well.

Therefore, both by wire transfer and by inexpensive physical storage, the academic monopoly on published information is being shattered, and the corporate media and government monopolies on information dissemination are being destroyed.

Why attend a university where retired-in-place tenured academics hoard information and disseminate it grudgingly in second-rate lectures and books, when the entire life's work and lectures of the most accomplished scholars alive can be stored on a few CD-ROMs and delivered to any home by wire or on plastic for negligible cost? Why be brainwashed by media moguls and their retainers who misreport current affairs to serve their personal political agendas, when essentially free bandwidth can effectively transport you to the events themselves and provide direct communication with the participants?

A major growth industry within this river of information will be in defining quality. Entrepreneurs must reach into this river and extract quality for delivery to the marketplace, since individuals will lack time to sift through the river by themselves. What is the highest quality information? The highest quality is that which is the truth and in which the truth is communicated most effectively.

Who will be the judges of these qualities? The market place will judge. An honestly earned reputation for integrity will once again be among each person's most valuable possessions. Economic power to control media resources and monopolies on the distribution of information will no longer confer pseudocredibility upon the holders of this power, since the cost of disseminating and receiving information will be negligible. With virtually all entrepreneurs having the economic capability to extract and send information, those who build the highest reputations for integrity will become the more widely utilized.

Moreover, I predict that small entrepreneurs entirely outside of the power structures of media and education will be the most successful. People who remain within those power structures will be institutionally hampered by the prejudices and agendas of the institutions. It will be much more difficult for them to build reputations of integrity.

The most influential news sources might become single, adventurous reporters who are self-employed, gain a reputation for depth and accuracy, and are not beholden to any organization or group whose interests must be considered when reporting the news. They could travel to interesting places and events, gather facts and analysis, and then make themselves available to anyone who wishes to tune them in.

No one can predict the ultimate events that will accompany the new informational freedom. It is, however, obvious that the lies that now keep us in bondage manage to survive only because they are favored by those who control the enormous amounts of capital required to effectively communicate with the public. As that economic control is ended by low-cost technology, truth will be able to compete on a level playing field with fiction. I think that there will then be a very high free market preference for truth.

Even though the College Board Scholastic Aptitude Tests have now been dumbed down and the grades have been arbitrarily inflated to obscure the lowered abilities of students in American socialized education, it is still necessary to have a moderately good vocabulary in order to score well on the verbal examination. Test preparation products, however, must conform to the abilities of their customers.

The Princeton Review - Cracking the SAT and PSAT, 1997 Edition by Adam Robinson and John Katzman, published by Random House, provides vocabulary lists and definitions as study aids for the verbal test. Two examples: "Sycophant'' is defined as "one who sucks up to others.'' "Jingoist'' is defined as "an extreme patriot.''

Nuclear Issues 18, No. 8, p4 (1996), reports that the percentages of electricity generated by nuclear power worldwide were 1.5% in 1970, 5.4% in 1975, 8.45% in 1980, 14.3% in 1985, and 16.2% in 1990.

The United States now stands 18th in the world in percentage of electricity generated by nuclear power with 23%. First and second places are held by Lithuania and France with nuclear electric generation of 86% and 76% respectively.

In a closely related development, the CTR Technical Services, Inc., (5619 Misty Crest Drive, Arlington, TX 76017) Summer 1996 newsletter reports the discovery of a new element.

"The element, tentatively named administratium, has no protons or electrons and thus an atomic number of zero (0). It does, however, have one neutron, 125 assistant neutrons, 75 vice neutrons, and 111 assistant vice neutrons, which gives it an atomic mass of 312. These 312 particles are held together by a force that involves the continuous exchange of meson-like particles called morons.

"Since it has no electrons, administratium is inert. It can, however, be detected chemically as it impedes every reaction with which it comes in contact. According to the discoverers, a minute amount of administratium causes one reaction to take over four days to complete when it would normally have occurred in less than a microsecond.

"Administratium has a normal half-life of approximately three years, at which time it does not decay, but instead undergoes a 'reorganization' in which assistant neutrons, vice neutrons, and assistant vice neutrons exchange places. Some studies have shown that the mass actually increases after each 'reorganization.' "Research at other laboratories indicates that administratium occurs naturally in the atmosphere. It tends to concentrate at certain points such as government agencies, large corporations, and universities. It can usually be found in the newest, best-appointed, and best-maintained buildings.

"Scientists point out that administratium is known to be toxic at any level of concentration and can easily destroy any productive reaction where it is allowed to accumulate. Attempts are being made to determine how administratium can be controlled to prevent further irreversible damage, but results to date are not promising.''

Even Science has taken note of the decline of American nuclear technology - a trend which its editorial policy has certainly done little to inhibit. "Nuclear Power in East Asia'' by Philip H. Abelson, Science 272, p 465 (1996), notes that no nuclear power plants have been authorized in the United States during the past ten years while large numbers of power reactors have been built in four to five years and operated successfully in East Asia. Government regulations increased American construction times to more than ten years. University nuclear engineering departments in the United States have decreased in number from 80 to 35 since 1978, and, according to Abelson, if these trends continue, "U. S. capabilities in nuclear technology will gradually become second class.''

The United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) continues to reel under revelations that its editor changed the wording of its most recent report on global warming after it had been agreed upon by the scientists involved. In CEI Update 9, No. 7, p 5 (1996), available from CEI, 1001 Connecticut Avenue, N.W., Suite 1250, Washington, DC 20036, James Sheehan discusses the changes. For example, at one point in the IPCC text in the peer reviewed discussion of when scientists will be able [to] attribute climate change to human causes, the editor removed the phrase "we do not know'' because (in his opinion) it overstated doubts that human activity can be blamed. This was then falsely advertised as the peer reviewed text.

The IPCC is, however, beginning to provide data of value to the global warming debate. Figure 2 is from "Is Global Climate at Risk'' by Sallie Baliunas at the 1996 DDP meeting in Salt Lake City in August 1996 (audio tapes available from DDP at (520) 325-2680).

Based upon a linear extrapolation of the declining IPCC estimates for global temperature increase by the year 2100, it can be estimated that the entire debate will shift back into the global cooling mode (where it was just a few years ago) in about the year 2003.

Meanwhile, the Clinton-Gore Administration has told the United Nations that it seeks an international agreement requiring the world's industrialized nations to reduce greenhouse gas emissions to prevent global warming. Specific targets are to be announced in December 1997. (See EPA Watch 5, No. 13, p 1, (1996), available from 1725 DeSales Street, N.W., Suite 700, Washington, DC 20036.) So far, the only significant environmental change from the rise in atmospheric carbon dioxide has been a marked increase in world plant and (presumably) animal growth. "Increased Activity of Northern Vegetation Inferred from Atmospheric CO2 Measurements'' by C. D. Keeling, J. F. S. Chin, and T. P Whorf, Science 382, p 146 (1996), reports seasonal increases in the CO2 cycle of 20% and greater. Surely 20% more "natural'' living things cannot be termed an enviro disaster.

In several previous articles, we have given data showing the posi tive correlation of lifespan and technology such as last month's comparison of Russian lifespans before and after the recent breakdown of parts of their technological economy.

Directions magazine 1, p10 (1996), reports a 1990 Harvard study of lifespan in 26 developed countries. This places the United States 16th in the world in life expectancy with 78.6 years for women and 71.6 years for men. First and second place are held by Japan and France with 82.5 years for women and 76.2 years for men & 81.3 years for women and 72.9 years for men respectively. This is three years or a 4% shorter life for Americans vs. the average of Japan and France.

Interestingly, the average percentage nuclear electricity generation of Japan and France is 55% vs. 23% for the United States. Although only a small part of this decreased lifespan could reasonably be attributed directly to energy production, nuclear power percentages are indicative of the technological environments of these three countries.

The United States is 18th in nuclear power and 16th in life expectancy. Thirty years ago, before we began diverting vast amounts of our capital to welfare programs and destroying our industrial base with taxes and regulations, the United States was first in almost everything.

In November, Oregonians will vote on a state-wide initiative that is being billed as a "clean water'' measure. Phased in over a 10 year period, this measure will prohibit any cow, sheep, goat, horse, chicken or other livestock from approaching within less than 100 feet of any of the waters of Oregon. Since the state already claims to own all raindrops in the state, this will even include stock ponds that are filled by rainfall runoff on public or private land. It will not even be possible to ride a horse through the woods and meadows of Oregon, since the state is very extensively covered by streams.

Just to be sure that the initiative is not impeded by rural law enforcement, the measure allows anyone (including nonresident paid political enviro agitators) to sue any animal owner whose animal gets too close to water. It also specifies that the animal owner will pay the plaintiff's legal bills if the plaintiff prevails, but the plaintiff will not pay the animal owner's legal bills if the land owner prevails.

Many of the signatures that placed this measure on the ballot were obtained by directly paying students at the Oregon state universities for their signatures. National enviro organizations provided the money in hopes of making Oregon an example for other states.

American freedom is particularly well entrenched in the Western United States, so the enemies of freedom are especially active here.

The Phyllis Schlafly Report 29, No. 12, p3, July 1996, available from P. O. Box 618, Alton, IL 62002, reports that "in Cecil County, Maryland, basketball is now played by some very unusual rules. If one basketball team is ten points ahead of the other, additional baskets don't count until the underdog team catches up. No record is kept of who scores how many baskets, so no player can ever be recognized as the star of the team.

"This system should be called Outcome-Based Basketball because it's just like the Outcome-Based Education (OBE) that has spread through our public schools like a contagious disease.''
The Shield 13, No. 3, pp 1-2, May/June 1996 available from High Frontier, 2800 Shirlington Road, Suite 405, Arlington, VA 22206, reports that the Clinton-Gore Administration has cut the missile defense budget by 60% and completely stopped those programs that provide a realistic potential for deployment of a missile defense. Moreover, they have even refused to release those funds already appropriated for 1996.

By gutting this research program and preventing programs for testing and deployment, this Administration is assuring that America will remain entirely vulnerable to nuclear, biological, or chemical warhead missile attack from even the smallest third-world dictators who may be able to afford only one missile.
"Poisons for Peace'' in The Wall Street Journal, p A18, Septem-ber 9, 1996 reports that the Chemical Weapons Treaty now being entered into by the Clinton-Gore Administration gives all signatories access to all of America's latest chemical technology. It prevents the signatories from keeping chemicals, information, or equipment from one another. In other words, sign the treaty and you get complete access to everything required to build the latest chemical weapons. Compliance is, of course, unverifiable, since small scale chemical production is trivial to conceal.

Moreover, the treaty also prohibits the use of non-lethal chemicals. This could place the military in the position where it would be forced to shoot people because it is not allowed to use tear gas.

"Ward Valley Project's Last Opponent, The Department of Interior'' in CITE Newsletter, April/May (1996) available from Citizens for Total Energy, P. O. Box 563, Sunol, CA 94586, describing Clin-ton-Gore Administration efforts to block rational disposal of low level radioactive waste from hospitals and other similar sources.

"The ABCs of Environmental Myths'' by Michael Sanera and Jane S. Shaw in The Wall Street Journal, p A14, September 4, 1996, about environmental brainwashing in socialized education. "They killed trees to make my bed,'' said a sad six-year-old. "Menace, catastrophe, collapse, shortage, disaster, breakdown, alarm, degradation, and deadly'' are the vocabulary words socialized educators use to describe human technological progress, while school laboratory exercises include pouring acid on plants to see them die.

As the World Burns and Glaciers Grow to the Sea by Dr. Robert E. Stevenson available from Vega Society Press, P. O. Box 689, Del Mar, CA 92014-0689, contains much well-written ammunition against the antitechnology enviros.

Toll Roads - The Newsletter of Tolling Turnpikes Bridges & Tunnels by Peter Samuel, 301 East Third Street, Frederick, MD 21701-5316, is a remarkable source of information about the science, engineering, and politics behind the American road system.

"Battery Charging'' by Carl E. Krupp in Self-Reliant Living 172 (1996). Since the word "survivalist'' has been thoroughly demonized by the press, I will avoid it, but Carl Krupp's publication contains a wealth of practical information including the solutions to small energy problems that arise in a self-sufficiency environment.

Ad Astra - The Magazine of the National Space Society, May/June 1996. This is a wonderful source of articles by many individuals who are leading the drive to begin a real manned space program as compared to the NASA bureaucracy which now envisions three or four very expensive improved replacements for their "space shuttles'' as justifications for another 10 years of papershuffling.

"FEMA Money - Come & Get It'' in The American Spectator pp 25-31, September 1996, describing how the Clinton-Gore Administration has turned the Federal Emergency Management Agency into a permanent political campaign tool for buying votes (now that they have finished killing all of its original civil defense mission).

Second Opinion, September 1996, which is a very sensibly balanced source of information about personal health and medicine. Already a valuable source, this newsletter will be increasingly important as the Clinton-Gore-Kennedy socialization of medicine continues.