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DDT and Malaria
Models - January 2004
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2000 Manias
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Access to Energy
Vol. 24, No. 12
 • Aztecan Science
 • EXORCISING POWER LINE DEMONS
 • GLOBAL DISASTER
 • NUCLEAR TECHNOLOGY
 • MICROMACHINES
 • COLD FUSION
 • YEAR 2000 COMPUTER TRANSITION
 • FREE ENTERPRISE EFFICIENCIES
 • STANDARDIZATION
 • STARK RAVING MAD
 • GOOD READING

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Aztecan Science

Priests of the Aztec Empire were early global environmentalists. They convinced the Aztec people that severe weather changes and the death of many species of plants and animals would occur unless appropriate rituals were performed.

At the top of those cute pyramids that they prevailed upon the people to build were sacrificial altar stones. The Aztec people were taught (by their religious and governmental leaders) that these stones must be kept wet with human blood. If the stones were allowed to dry out, the sun would cease to shine.

We do not know the fate of any Aztec scientists who proposed to make an experimental test of this theory. We suspect, however, that they were allowed to make a positive contribution to the global environment directly upon the altar stones.

It is most gratifying to contemplate the advanced developments of our ancestors. For many centuries, humanity has been stifled by the scientific methods advanced by Western Civilization. These methods require experimental observation, hypotheses that are tested by direct observation, and a rigorously rational analytical methodology that depends upon demonstrable truth at each step.

This scientific method is deficient, however, in that it does not allow for "proactive'' conclusions based upon the wishful thinking of politically correct "scientists,'' politicians, new world order bureaucrats, and their retainers in the new environmental elite. Fortunately, this deficiency is overcome by Aztecan science.

With Aztecan science, any possible global environmental disaster that can be imagined can be immediately overcome before its potential effects are allowed to harm the planet. There is no need to wait for experimental verification of the hypothesis.

Moreover, with Aztecan science, potential disasters can be tailored to meet special needs. When the elite decides, for example, that world government is needed, catastrophes that can be prevented by weakening of national laws in favor of global laws are made available. When the elite decides that there are too many people, catastrophes that require cutbacks in the energy and chemical technologies that permit large numbers of people to live are invented.

The primary theoretical advance of Aztecan science over its predecessor lies in its recognition that the value of a hypothesis rests not upon experimental test of its validity but upon its political value to the ruling elite. Like other profound human insights, this advance has roots far back in history. Although we are crediting the Aztecs, we expect that many ancient Asian and European pagan leaders warned their people of dire environmental consequences that would occur if they stopped worshiping graven images of Baal.

The Aztecs were conquered by Cortes with about 200 men in 1519. At Oregon State University, students are taught that the 200 Spaniards were able to prevail over the large, virtuous Aztec nation because these Europeans were "religious fanatics,'' which caused them to fight more energetically. Gunpowder helped, too. Most useful, however, were the tribes of Indians living near the Aztecs, the blood of whose women and children had been used to prevent environmental catastrophe. These tribes allied themselves with Cortes.

Now, Aztecan science is back! Blood is flowing more copiously than ever before, and new treaties and laws that are nearing implementation will turn this into a veritable river of human sacrifices.

The greatest sacrifice is currently being made by the millions of people who are suffering and dying each year from malaria. The banning of DDT is probably the largest act of genocide in human history. The National Academy of Sciences estimated that DDT saved 500 million human lives before it was banned. Since the banning, tens of millions have died and hundreds of millions have suffered horribly from this disease. Why? They have died and are continuing to die because predictions of environmental disaster from DDT - predictions that were never based upon experimental verification - allowed population control fanatics to ban the chemical.

Most recently, we have the ban of refrigeration chemicals and the ongoing attempt to ban halogenated compounds (those containing chlorine, fluorine, bromine, and iodine) of all sorts. Here the flow of blood is less obvious. This ongoing ban has already wasted tens of billions of dollars and is expected to cost hundreds of billions more. It is estimated that each $2 million to $10 million wasted results in the loss of one human life. In any case, the poor are getting poorer because of the CFC ban and are living shorter, more miserable lives. Why? - to prevent an increase of ultraviolet light due to destruction of atmospheric ozone. Yet this UV increase has not taken place, and, so far, no significant change in ozone has been observed.

Now, the Clinton administration, Aztecan to the core, is promoting the largest technological genocide program ever implemented - the forced reduction of world hydrocarbon use by means of global carbon controls implemented by international treaty. This, we are told, is to prevent global warming and the concomitant inundation of coastal cities, vast weather changes, and global environmental catastrophe caused by rising atmospheric temperatures.

Yet, we have been releasing carbon into the atmosphere in very large quantities for over 50 years - and atmospheric temperature is going down (see previous issues of Access to Energy). For the last two decades, we have even had sophisticated thermometers on orbiting satellites. These thermometers have recorded a decrease in atmospheric temperature during the past two decades.

The temperature of our planet, like the shining of the sun, is a phenomenon that is apparently still too large for human activity to influence to a significant extent. This, however, is no impediment to the Aztecans. Public opinion can be influenced by propaganda - especially propaganda that elicits fear of the unknown. This is the central component of Aztecan science.

The global warming bandwagon has one central purpose - population control. If energy availability can be curtailed, a lot of people are going to die. This is genocide by international treaty with an enormous propaganda campaign to permit its implementation and to keep people ignorant of its intent and effects.

DDT is banned; CFCs are banned; and carbon must be restricted -and catastrophe will not occur. Our new Aztecan priests will then take credit for saving us - while the river of blood continues to flow.


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EXORCISING POWER LINE DEMONS

"No Evidence Is Found Linking Leukemia In Children and Electromagnetic Fields'' by Robert Langreth in The Wall Street Journal, p B6, July 3, 1997, reviews a new National Cancer Institute and University of Minnesota epidemiological study of 638 children with leukemia

and 620 healthy control children published in the New England Journal of Medicine. Leslie Robison, one of the authors of the research report, is quoted as saying, "The risk [of leukemia from magnetic fields] doesn't exist.'' This statement implies that Robison has knowledge that the risk of childhood leukemia from power lines is zero.

As previous Access to Energy articles have shown, it is very unlikely that electromagnetic fields from power lines can increase the probability of cancer to a significant extent. Nevertheless, the Ro-bison statement illustrates a special problem encountered when honest science is mixed with sound-bite journalism.

The reported experiment cannot possibly prove that the risk is zero. With a finite number of subjects, the proper statement is something along the lines of: "We can state with 95% confidence that the chance of power lines causing leukemia in a single individual is less than X,'' where X is computed from the experimental results and the percentage reliability (95% is chosen here only for illustration) is chosen arbitrarily. The higher this reliability cutoff, the higher will be X.

The burden of proof in the endless stream of enviro myths should rest on the originators of the myths. Instead, the media place that burden upon the targets of the myths. Had Robison made an accurate statement of the results instead of offering an exaggerated sound bite, we might have seen headlines like "Leukemia Study Scientist Admits That Power Lines May Cause Cancer in Some Children.'' Do not worry, however, that our tax financed schools will improve public ability to understand quantitative truth. "President Clinton's Mandate for Fuzzy Math'' by Lynne V. Cheney in The Wall Street Journal, p A22, June 11, 1997, reports that the chairman of Clinton's new committee to develop a national eighth grade math test, John A. Dossey, is a principal originator of the current "whole math'' fad.

"Whole math'' does away with drill in mathematics and teaches students that getting the right answer is less important than having a good rationale for a wrong one. A few years ago, Mr. Dossey proposed that national math tests have a scoring system wherein the student would get only half credit for a right answer unless he made clear his method of calculation, while the student would get full credit for a wrong answer if it was accompanied by an "appropriate strategy.'' The first part of this system has already been implemented in College Board Advanced Placement math exams for college entrance where the right answer to the problem is not sufficient for full credit.

American tax-financed schools are now teaching math by encounter group wherein teachers stay on the sidelines while groups of students develop committee-based "conceptual approaches.'' This is also a rapidly growing fad in university science programs where "peer review'' and group work is replacing individual study and achievement.


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GLOBAL DISASTER

The world is moving rapidly closer to an enormous environmental disaster - the global warming treaty that the Clinton Administration is planning to sign in Kyoto, Japan in December 1997. The mandated large reduction in world energy use required by this treaty will bring suffering and death to a very great number of people . Moreover, by sharply diminishing world-wide wealth, the treaty will also destroy the resources available for sensible environmental programs.

There is political opposition as evidenced by "A Treaty Built on Hot Air . . .'' by Jack Kemp and scientific opposition as illustrated by ". . . Not Scientific Consensus'' by S. Fred Singer both in The Wall Street Journal, p A14, July 25, 1997. There is also political support as the front page of this same Journal issue reports that President Clinton held a White House symposium to kick off a campaign to promote the treaty to the American public.

Unfortunately, opponents of the treaty in the United States Senate are basing their opposition to the treaty on a campaign of political envy rather than upon the scientific evidence that this treaty is entirely unnecessary and will not improve or preserve the global environment.

The highlighted text in the Kemp article reads "The drastic cut in energy use this treaty would require would not be legally binding on developing nations, including three of the biggest carbon-dioxide producers.'' (These are India, South Korea, and China.) The argument is being made that the treaty places the United States at a competitive disadvantage to other countries. While true, this is an irrelevant and dangerous argument. Suppose that these countries should agree to conform or, at least, pretend to conform to the treaty. Then the opposition, which should be based on science rather than envy, will melt away.

In this treaty, we are seeing an order of magnitude worsening of the anti-science, anti-technology, anti-free enterprise, anti-human New Age mythology that is promoted by of much of the American elite.

Why has the truth about their many scandals not ended the Clinton-Gore administration? Why is the truth about science and the environment not influential in environmental politics? Why are we even having to defend the value of teaching the truth about simple arithmetic to elementary students? Why do our better conservative politicians decide to fight our enemies with a weak argument based upon the politics of envy rather than the truth?

The answer may be that we have allowed such a large part of our civilization to be owned and operated by central government rather than free enterprise that political power is now ascendant over personal strength. That political power is now in the hands of people in government, business, and the media who do not respect the truth, so our society is being dominated by lies whereby they seek additional power.


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NUCLEAR TECHNOLOGY

"Nuclear Technology in Agriculture and Nutrition'' by J. L. Du-pont, et al in Nuclear News 40, No. 7, pp 58-62 (1997), discusses the use of nuclear technology in pest control, food irradiation, and studies of human physiology and metabolism.

In pest control, for example, the nuclear mass production and release of sterile male screw worms has permitted the eradication of screw worms in the United States, Mexico, Belize, Guatemala, El Salvador, and Honduras. Fruit flies have been eradicated in California, Florida, Australia, The Marianas, Japan, and Guam.

Food irradiation permits the consumption of less expensive, more nutritious food by reducing losses in transport and storage. Figure 1 shows the extraordinary effectiveness of this technique. (Since our sympathies do not lie with the E. coli and Salmonella, we will forgive the lack of possible hormesis near the origin of the graph, which has obviously been extrapolated to zero.)

Several studies of human biochemistry are described that use either radioactive or stable isotopes as tracers. For example, tracer experiments show that heavy people consume more food and expend more energy to maintain body weight than do people with lower weight. This may seem self-evident, but poorer studies based on reports of food intake and activity have reached an opposite conclusion.


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MICROMACHINES

"Macro Power from Micro Machinery'' by A. H. Epstein and S. D. Senturia, Science 276, p 1211 (1997), is a fascinating summary of advances and advantages of micromachinery.

Engineers have now built a gas turbine that is 4 mm in diameter. (There are 25.4 mm per inch.) The authors report that, with current technology, a gas turbine generator, complete with compressor and combustor, can be built that is less than one cm3 (10 mm on a side) and delivers 50 watts of electric power.

Interestingly, the power-to-weight ratio improves as the size diminishes, so the thrust-to-weight ratio of these micro turbines is 10 times greater than that of modern aircraft engines.


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COLD FUSION

Access to Energy has carried only occasional mention of research in the subject known as "cold fusion'' because it is so far out of our field of expertise (even though it is very close to our area of interest) that we are just not qualified to evaluate it.

"Cold Fusion: The 'Miracle' is No Mistake'' by Eugene F. Mallove in Analog , pp 53-73, July-August 1997, gives a current review. This article includes 91 references - most of them to the scientific literature and authored by serious scientists. It begins, however, with a long section denigrating skeptics and declaring that the end is near for the value of virtually all current energy technology. This does not help readers to keep open minds.

While it is certainly true, as Mallove points out, that many revolutionary technological advances have been initially opposed by closed-minded critics, it is equally true that large numbers of intelligent and well-educated people have sometimes participated in delusions and manias that turned out in retrospect to have been foolish indeed. Opposition to a new idea is not evidence that it is a good idea (although such opposition can be reason for optimism).

Cold fusion research is expanding because an increasing number of laboratories are reporting excess energy production at levels believed to be too high for chemical processes and are also finding residual changes in elemental composition during the reactions - changes of some elements into others as evidence of nuclear reactions.

There are two primary difficulties. First, these devices (and there are now many different designs) tend to be unstable with widely variable quantitative results from experiment to experiment. For example, Mallove reports that the Patterson Power Cell has generated as much as 1,300 watts output for 1.4 watts input, but usually generates 5 to 10 watts output from between one-third to one-thirtieth as much input.

Second, there is not yet an accepted theoretical basis for this phenomenon even among its strongest proponents. Hypotheses vary from chemically assisted nuclear reactions of a sort never before recognized to the inadvertent release of universal "zero point energy.'' The term "cold fusion'' originates from the hypothesis that energy is being produced by the conversion of mass into energy through fusion of hydrogen atoms to produce helium atoms. This explanation does not, however, explain all of the experimental results.

A trick question sometimes placed on examinations in courses on equilibrium thermodynamics involves the rate of chemical reactions. The student is given detailed information which allows the calculation of the amount of energy that will be produced by two chemical reactions. He is asked to predict which reaction will proceed with the greater rate. The trick is that equilibrium thermodynamics does not provide information about reaction rates as a function of energy. Not recognizing this, many students try to give a prediction.

A bottle containing a mixture of hydrogen and oxygen can sit safely on the shelf for many years with no change even though the potential energy release is very great. The bottle will explode if a spark is introduced to initiate the reaction. Many much less energetic reactions occur spontaneously.

Against "cold fusion,'' it is argued theoretically that nuclear reaction rates at low temperature are too slow to be measurable and that the expected amounts of specific nuclear reaction products have not been observed. It cannot be proved, however, that nuclear reaction rates cannot be increased by some heretofore unknown catalytic mechanism. Nor can it be shown that there are not undiscovered new types of nuclear reactions.

With the additional possibility of some process (zero-point energy release is almost the province of science fiction, but serious physicists say it is there and potentially usable) other than a nuclear reaction, it is just not possible to prove theoretically that the reported energy release in cold fusion experiments cannot happen. These experiments might turn out to be misnamed, but the name is not the essence of this issue.

Against "cold fusion,'' it is argued experimentally that the observations have not proved to be observable in some other laboratories. In fact, the results are often not even reproducible within the same laboratory and same apparatus from experiment to experiment. If the same equipment can give results varying by two orders of magnitude, it is not surprising that, with several laboratories operating independently, some would fail to observe a positive result at all. One such failure was at Caltech and has been widely quoted to discredit cold fusion.

I recall many years ago attending a wonderful lecture given by Neil Bartlett, the scientist who discovered the compounds of xenon and fluorine. Prior to his work, most chemists thought that no chemical compounds could be made between the noble gas xenon and other atoms. It happened, however, that in 1933, the year Bartlett was born, the existence of xenon fluorides was predicted at Caltech by Linus Pauling on the basis of theoretical calculations.

Pauling's prediction was immediately tested by outstanding experimental chemists working with Pauling at Caltech. They completely failed in these experiments (although, in retrospect, it appears that they actually may have made the compounds, but failed to recognize that they had done so). Twenty-nine years later Bartlett succeeded. Failures by prestigious laboratories are not evidence of impossibility.

Cold fusion is a field of inquiry without a unifying theoretical basis and without quantitative experimental reproducibility. This does not mean that it is bogus. In the early stages of investigation, many areas of science have had similar problems. It does mean, however, that this work is very hard to evaluate by scientists outside of the field. Unless one has actual personal experience with these experiments in the laboratory, it is difficult to form a reliable impression.

If you are especially interested in this subject, read the Analog article by Eugene Mallove and especially some of the publications he references. Try not to "trust and parrot'' either cold fusion proponents or cold fusion critics. The Seventh International Conference on Cold Fusion will be held in Vancouver, Canada from April 18-23, 1998, where the best efforts of the proponents will be on display.


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YEAR 2000 COMPUTER TRANSITION

As the year 2000 approaches, everyone from One World globalists to New Age mystics is dancing with increased vigor. We anticipate increasing activity in all sorts of nuttiness as the date nears. We did not expect, however, that this would include computer technology.

Now the merchants of fear are telling us that Western civilization will terminally collapse on 1 January 2000 because some older computer software that is still in use was not written to roll its date forward properly into another century. We are being told that government activities will abruptly stop (this is a disaster?), trucks and trains will not roll, financial institutions will cease activity, and we shall all find ourselves in post-Civil War America without the necessary survival skills.

Although I have used computers very extensively for over 30 years, I cannot claim to be an expert on this subject. I do think, however, that some humility is appropriate. The vast computer industry is made up of hundreds of thousands of our most talented technologists. During the past twenty years they have transformed digital technology so completely that they have managed to place a veritable engineering miracle in a small, inexpensive box in more than half of American homes.

Now, we are expected to believe that this entire industry is going to fall flat on its face and take Western civilization down with it because of bugs in older software that were known to be present many years in advance. Most disaster scenarios are, of course, based on real factors -amplified beyond reason. The year 2000 bugs do exist. A sub-industry of computer programmers is currently prospering by fixing these bugs. Some ill-managed enterprises will probably fail to fix this problem appropriately. (We could hope that this includes government computers, but then the taxpayers would just have another failure to finance.)

Those enterprises may be temporarily disadvantaged as a result.

If all of our computers stopped tomorrow, there would be a period of disruption while we reverted to the previous, less efficient pre-computer methods - with which most of our essential technology was built. A nuclear attack might stop a large fraction of those computers through EMP. An obsolete software bug is very unlikely to do so.


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FREE ENTERPRISE EFFICIENCIES

"Electrifying Possibilities,'' by E. Carson in Reason, p 13, June 1997, available from 3415 S. Sepulveda Blvd., Suite 400, Los Angeles, CA 90034-6064, reports a Brookings Institution study of the price of American industrial goods and services following deregulation and conversion to free enterprise markets. The study included natural gas, long distance telecom, airlines, trucking, and railroads.

Prices decreased gradually over time until, ten years after deregulation, the real price of natural gas had fallen 27-57%; of long distance telecom had fallen 40-47%; of airlines had fallen 29%, of trucking had fallen 28-56%, and of railroads had fallen 44%.

The Brookings authors, Ellig and Robert Crandall, estimate that deregulation of industries in the late 1970s and 1980s is now saving Americans about $60 billion per year. The article does not estimate, however, American losses since then from new regulations.


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STANDARDIZATION

"Some Things Live Forever,'' reprinted by Jim Dean in Bill's Soapbox, RR1, Box 69-A, Bangs, TX 76823 and originally published in MenSA as quoted in Wake-Up Call America, for March-April 1997, P. O. Box 280488, Lakewood, CO 80228, gives a history of the U.S. standard railroad gauge of 4 feet, 8.5 inches.

Dean says that the U.S. gauge was copied from the English gauge by English immigrants. That gauge came from English tramways which were built with the jigs and tools that were used for building English wagons.

The wagon spacing was standardized so that the road ruts would match the wheels and produce less wear on the wagons during long distance hauls. The standardized ruts were derived from those in the Roman roads which were built in Europe and England. The ruts were initially made by Roman chariots that were all alike in wheel spacing.

The Imperial Roman wheel spacings for war chariots were made wide enough to accommodate the back-ends of two war horses - a width of 4 feet, 8.5 inches.


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STARK RAVING MAD

It seems that two social workers were walking along a street when they came upon the victim of a mugging lying in the gutter. Covered with bruises from a horrible beating, the unconscious and profusely bleeding victim was near death. Said one social worker to the other, "Oh my. This is terrible! Whoever did this certainly needs our help!''

The average home school budget is about $500 per student per year. The self-teaching home school curriculum available from the Oregon Institute of Science and Medicine reduces this to about $50 per student per year or $25 if there are two students in the home (or $10 for five).

As George Gilder keeps saying in the Gilder Technology Report, available from P. O. Box 660, Housatonic, MA 01236, the digital revolution is dropping the cost of information transfer essentially to zero. Information itself, of course, will remain as costly as the market justifies. Information that is old enough or public enough to be beyond copyright or is distributed widely enough to have a negligibly low per unit copyright value is becoming essentially free. This includes virtually all of the information taught to students before the age of 18 and nearly all of the information taught in universities.

The monopolies on information held by schools and universities have been largely based upon place utility. Faculties and administrators of those institutions controlled the dissemination of information to students because they controlled the repositories. The microcomputer revolution has destroyed those institutional monopolies.

This technological deregulation of the market for information is going to reduce the cost of education far more than the 50% reductions seen in industries like trucking because underlying real costs are negligible. Standardized testing of students and accreditation of their degrees will be an industry with very low fixed costs. We expect university educations to drop in real cost by at least a factor of ten.


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GOOD READING



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