| Vol. 25, No. 2 |
|
| Top | Previous | Next |
The ongoing technological revolution in information transfer and storage was vividly demonstrated at the George Gilder - Forbes Tele-cosm Conference that was held September 14-16 in Palm Springs. At this meeting, George Gilder assembled a large percentage of the remarkable individuals who are responsible for this revolution. Their insights provide outstanding guidance regarding information technology. Transcriptions of the Palm Springs meeting and subscriptions to the
Gilder Technology Report are available from Monument Mills, P. O. Box 660, Housatonic, MA 01236, or from (888) 484-2727.Microelectronics, fiber optics, earth-orbiting satellites, and free enterprise are allowing a collection of the best engineering and business minds on our planet to build technology that will be able to instantly interconnect - by text, audio, and visual images - all currently living human minds with one another and with all recorded human knowledge from the present and from the past.
We are all familiar with ways in which this technology has already touched our lives. These have been just a beginning. The advances of the coming decade will astonish even the technologists.
Our libraries will disappear, as virtually all recorded knowledge becomes available at every human location by means of electronic networks and, where preferred, on low-cost plastic disks. Transmission of audio, visual, and textual information will become essentially instantaneous as the bandwidth of this electronic miracle increases far beyond our individual abilities to utilize it.
With the collapse of their monopolies on knowledge stored in libraries and information delivery, educational institutions - from elementary school through college - will be transformed. Most will die. The remainder will be engaged primarily in testing and accreditation.
As far as information and communications are concerned, all human minds are going to be electronically connectable and effectively relocatable to a single point in time and space. Even those minds that are no longer living will be able to occupy this point to the extent that their knowledge has been recorded and retained.
While these changes will transform most aspects of our lives, they will not substitute for all of our activities. A popular myth is spreading that we are moving into the "information age'' and a "post-industrial'' society. It is claimed that, in this mythical new age, even pseudoenvironmentalist energy rationing will be harmless because information technology requires very little energy. This is nonsense.
The maintenance and enrichment of human lives still require steel, concrete, fuel, and all of the other commodities and manufactured goods upon which we depend. We must have food, shelter, clothing, transportation, medicine, and other necessities to survive; and we must have literature, art, music, and the tools to explore new frontiers in the microscopic worlds and in outer space in order to fulfill higher human objectives and needs. Better information can make us more effective in these works, but it cannot substitute for the works.
There is no such thing as a world "post-industrial society.'' Post industrialism can be tried on a local or national level, but the risks are great. The United States is, for example, the current world leader in information technology, but it is rapidly losing its leadership in most other technologies - especially heavy industry. Confiscatory taxation and out-of-control regulation and litigation are driving productive industry out of America and into more favorable environments. It is astonishing that Communist China, while still under the control of a terrible tyranny, is rapidly overtaking American industry because China has lower taxes and less regulation and litigation.
Also, advances in information technology do not stand alone as unalterable advantages because
not all information is true - and -even true information is not useful unless it is intelligently utilized.What good does it do for us to have enhanced access to tax information, for example, if we just stare blindly at the numbers and continue to destroy the savings and capital of our country through very high and debilitating taxation? Of what value is better scientific information about our environment, if we continue to ignore that information in favor of politically correct - but scientifically incorrect -regulations whose net effect is actually to damage our environment?
One result of the decentralization that is inherent in the information revolution is the breaking of monopolies - both government monopolies over their own citizens and industrial monopolies. The future will belong to those who thrive in this new decentralized free-enterprise environment because they are able to effectively distinguish useful and true information from the useless or false. Countries that try to continue their monopolies over their citizens by stifling free enterprise and promoting false information will gradually die.
The monopolies will, of course, resist. Publications will attempt to maintain their copyrights - only to find that authors and readers move to other publishers. "Educators'' will try to maintain their monopolies through government testing and other politically controllable standards - only to find that students and employers discard them. Governments will try to continue the surveillance of their citizens through laws against encryption technology - only to find their brightest and best citizens relocating to other countries.
Where are the new opportunities in this revolution other than in the information technology itself? They are where they have always been. Any activity that demonstrably improves the quality and quantity of human life, as determined by the vote of the free marketplace, will thrive - all activities that provide for the necessities and desires of human beings. These include also those activities that separate truth from fiction, myth from reality, and useful facts from nonuseful - that sort through information in quest of facts with the most value.
With the enormous increase in the amount of deliverable information, this latter activity will be more important and more difficult. We might say that "wisdom'' will be in increased demand - electronically extracted and communicated wisdom. There will be approximately the same number of "facts'' (both true and false) in each human mind, since mental capacity is not increasing. With so many more facts available, however, which ones should each of us retain?
The information revolution and its concomitant benefits cannot be stopped. It will occur. It will not necessarily, however, occur in any particular place. Misused government power can spoil it. We must have the wisdom to not let that happen in the United States.
| Top | Previous | Next |
If a child asks his parents several times for the same dispensation -but each time gives a different reason for the request - they may justifiably conclude that it is the dispensation that the child desires. Obviously, the reasons are merely means to an end. So it is also with adults.
We have now endured three campaigns against the use of coal, oil, and natural gas. First, it was claimed that we were running out of these commodities. World use of hydrocarbons must be sharply reduced immediately, we were told, because supplies of coal, oil, and natural gas were soon to be exhausted, leaving us without them even for uses where there are no substitutes. This first excuse was a sort of "endangered species'' argument casting the continued users of hydrocarbons
as poor stewards of the Earth's rapidly diminishing resources. As it turned out, the world is awash in hydrocarbons with an approximately 1,000-years' supply, even assuming a doubling of world population, high living standards for everyone, and the generation of all energy from burning hydrocarbons. (See "Future Energy Sources,''
Access to Energy 24, p 1-2, July 1997.) This has been reflected by steadily diminishing free market hydrocarbon costs, with the occasional price increases clearly being the result of political and not natural causes.Second, it was claimed that
global cooling was being caused by the burning of hydrocarbons in human activities. This claim was made during an unusually cold period of global weather, although that period began long before there was significant human use of hydrocarbons. Immediate and sharp reductions in hydrocarbon use were advocated by "environmental scientists'' in order to curtail this disastrous global cooling. Not only was there not a shred of evidence to support this hypothesis, but temperature records showed that, in the early part of the 20th century, the atmosphere was actually becoming a little warmer.Third, it was claimed that
global warming was being caused by the release of carbon dioxide during the human burning of coal, oil, and natural gas. Remarkably, this claim was made by many of the same people who had warned about global cooling. We must, we have been told, immediately and sharply curtail our use of hydrocarbons in order to prevent catastrophe from global warming - even though there is not yet a shred of credible evidence that human release of carbon dioxide is significantly warming the atmosphere.Three excuses - one demand. Moreover, the demand parallels other similar demands. Increased nuclear energy use in the United States has been blocked as the result of claims (from many of the same people who are demonizing hydrocarbons) that nuclear power plants are dangerous. The dangers described have not been scientifically credible, but the political agitation has been effective indeed.
In addition, we now have "environmentalist'' organizations in many localities that are agitating for the removal of dams from Ameri-can rivers. Many of these dams generate hydroelectric power as well as providing farm irrigation water and flood control. Several dams in the Northwest, including two within 50 miles from where I am writing, are nearing political decisions that will result in their demolition.
Five excuses - three energy sources - one result. The only energy sources not currently under attack are those that are, as yet, impractical for the generation of substantial amounts of electric power. The inescapable conclusion is that these political children want
energy rationing - by whatever excuses it may be obtained.Why? Consider "The Sky is No Limit'' in
Green & Gold 7, p 3, July 1997, available from P. O. Box 74416, Lynnwood Ridge, Pretoria 0040, South Africa, which quotes The Energy Outlook 1997, published by the Energy Information Administration, EIA, of the U. S. Department of Energy. EIA predicts that world energy demand will rise 54% between 1995 and 2015. It is predicted that, by 2015, the developing countries of Asia alone will use 9% more energy than the United States. Electricity consumption is predicted to rise 75% between 1995 and 2015, which will require the equivalent of 5,000 additional 300-megawatt electric power plants.These large increases in energy use are partly the result of increasing population and partly the result of increased world-wide economic development, especially in Asia. Fortunately, there are several practical methods for generating this energy, plenty of industrial and financial resources to build the necessary facilities, and proven fuel reserves to power them for the next 20,000 years (See again
Access to Energy 24, p 1-2.) - methods, means, and fuels that we have been told, five times for five different reasons, not to use.Moreover, even conservationism on a 20,000-year time scale cannot explain these demands, since solar energy at the Earth's boundary is more than 2,000 times our projected 21st Century needs. In 20,000 years we shall surely learn to use that and fusion power besides.
Energy rationing - for this is the obvious intent of these "reasons'' - will have two large effects. It will reduce the world population of human beings (substitute "genocide'' if you prefer more literal truth), and it will perpetuate economic slavery as a way of life for large proportions of the world's people, who cannot better themselves without access to energy - the currency of technological progress. These are the effects of energy rationing. It is obviously not being advocated for the excuses. We must assume that it is being advocated for its effects.
It is no longer politically correct to say things like "there are too many people - let's kill them until their numbers please us'' or "there are too many potential competitors - let's be sure they never have the chance to rise above the level of economic slavery to us.'' Instead, the new and acceptable way is to cry crocodile tears for the "earth'' and predict doom for the planet and make any other excuses that the press will trust and parrot in order to get world energy rationing.
If an energy rationing system can be established, no matter how mild its original provisions, then it can be tightened until it is used to reduce world population and control the economic well-being and personal freedom of every individual on Earth.
Energy rationing is a new means to political power, and it is ever so much nicer than war. People can be controlled and killed at will while the perpetrators posture as benign lovers of Planet Earth. World energy rationing is now very close - as close as the treaty that Clinton and Gore intend to sign in Japan this December. This must be stopped.
If the energy rationing treaty passes, a
lot of people are going to die.
| Top | Previous | Next |
With regard to killing as one purpose of energy rationing, we have used the word "genocide.'' "Murder by the State'' by Gerald W. Scully, NCPA Policy Report No. 211, September 1997, available from the National Center for Policy Analysis, 12655 N. Central Expwy., Suite 720, Dallas, TX 75243, distinguishes "genocide,'' the murder of minorities, from "democide,'' the murder of the general population by their own government. Those on the bottom of the economic ladder, the first to be killed by energy rationing, might be considered a minority and, in any case, are often constituted more of recognized minorities, but the difference is merely semantic.
Scully documents the fact that 7.3% of the world's people have been murdered by their own governments during the 20th century - vs. 8.9%, 4.7%, and 3.7% for the 13th, 17th, and 19th centuries respectively. These numbers do not include deaths by war or by abortion.
Nor have these murders been carried out by only a few evil governments with which we are all familiar. He lists 74 countries that have conducted democides during the 20th century, including 19 communist countries and - among noncommunist countries - 19 in Africa, 15 in Latin America, 13 in Asia and the Middle East, and 8 in Europe.
Scully thinks that democide will diminish as governments realize people are more valuable alive than dead. He supports this hypothesis with graphs of democide vs. productivity. Worldwide, however, the century by century decline in democide has been sharply reversed during the 20th century - a century of rising per capita productivity.
The lesson is that governments do not hesitate to kill their own people when those in control decide that this is in their personal interests. We like to believe that the United States is different (except for occasional small incidents - which have been rising in frequency recently), but world energy rationing is a planet-wide program. We cannot expect its morals and objectives to be any better than the the lowest common denominator of the many governments involved - most of which have engaged in democide during the 20th century.
Scully concludes that democide is associated with about a 20% loss of national wealth and is the result of dominant group and authoritarian rule. A 20% loss - not personally affecting the rulers - is a small price to pay for power. Moreover, world energy rationing is obviously a program associated with authoritarian rule - on an international scale.
As always, our technology coexists with the character of man - and has no meaning separate from its effects upon mankind. We build for fun and for usually noble reasons, but we must never forget to "watch our backs.'' The ignoble characteristics of man are always there.
It is wrong to knowingly kill a child every 12 seconds from malaria by banning the use of DDT as we are doing now. It is even worse to increase this killing by orders of magnitude through energy rationing.
| Top | Previous | Next |
"Six Ships That Shook the World'' by Roger Archibald in
Invention and Technology 13, Number 2, pp 24-36 (1997), available from American Heritage of Invention and Technology, Forbes Building, 60th Fifth Avenue, New York, NY 10011, is a fascinating account of the ships designed by Joshua Humphreys and his later coworker Josiah Fox - technology that permitted George Washington to build an American navy that effectively blocked the British fleet in 1812 and turned the United States into a world naval power.British ships of the line had enormous fire power but they were very slow - approximately 5 knots. They needed to be short and massive in order to hold the weight of large numbers of very heavy guns. Longer and lighter ships were more maneuverable, but lacked cannons and strength that could compete with the heavier ships.
Humphrey's principal innovation, called Figure by a recent captain of the USS
Constitution "the stealth technology of its day,'' was massive oak beams inside the ship that evenly distributed the weight of the guns onto the keel of the ship. This permitted the construction of a heavily-armed, long, light ship that was fast - 13 knots. Humphrey's ships could outmaneuver and outrun any other man-of-war in existence and could match their cannon range and weight of projectiles. See Figure 1. 
In addition, Humphrey's used a very hard variety of oak growing only in the Americas and a special design that made the ships' sides particularly resistant. In all forty-two of her battles, the hull of the USS
Constitution (Old Ironsides) was never penetrated by a cannon ball. Her overall design was so new that it would have been rejected except for the fact that America had no navy and therefore no peer review.The USS
Constitution is the only one of the six original ships that remains. It is possible to walk on her decks in ignorance of her history and see only an old wooden ship. It is impossible to read Archibald's article without deeper feelings and perhaps a mist in your eyes.
| Top | Previous | Next |
Fear is the stock in trade of the antitechnologists, and lack of knowledge exacerbates fear. The myth that there is an epidemic of cancer caused by industrially produced chemicals has proven, therefore, to be a gold mine for pseudoenvironmentalist propagandists. If you are in their business, however, one Bruce Ames can spoil your whole year. Ames and his colleagues and coworkers just keep churning out research data that discredits this myth - the principal myth that keeps the Environmental Protection Agency in business.
In "Environmental Pollution, Pesticides, and the Prevention of Cancer: Misconceptions'' by B. N. Ames and L. S. Gold, to be published in the November issue of the
FASEB Journal, Ames and Gold, list nine myths ("misconceptions'') and demolish them all. These are:1. "Cancer rates are soaring.'' Overall mortality (excluding smoking induced lung cancer) from cancer has decreased 16% since 1950.
2. "Environmental synthetic chemicals are an important cause of human cancer.'' The percentage of cancers induced by such chemicals is so low that it cannot be measured reliably enough to verify, while the cancer-causing effects of banning chemicals, such as diminished consumption of fruits and vegetables, are high and easily measurable.
3. "Reducing pesticide residues is an effective way to prevent diet-related cancer.'' Plant-produced pesticides constitute most of the pesticides in fruits and vegetables and are generally harmless anyway.
4. "Human exposures to carcinogens and other potential hazards are nearly all to synthetic chemicals.'' An estimated 99.9% of the chemicals humans ingest are natural and these natural chemicals have the same overall cancer-causing potential as synthetic chemicals.
5. "Cancer risks to humans can be assessed by standard high-dose animal cancer tests.'' These high dose experiments are erroneously extrapolated to ordinary dose levels by means of a linear, no-threshold
1
hypothesis that is not consistent with biological facts.
6. "Synthetic chemicals pose greater carcinogenic hazards than natural chemicals.'' In fact, half of all chemicals tested in the standard high-dose animal tests are found to be "carcinogenic'' - half of the synthetic chemicals and half of the natural chemicals. Of the 28 tested natural compounds from coffee, 19 have been classed "carcinogenic.''
7. "The toxicology of synthetic chemicals is different from that of natural chemicals.'' This myth - not scientific evidence showing environmental harm or health dangers, since none exists - is at the heart of enviropropaganda for the ban of DDT. Ames and Gold quote the 1970 National Academy of Sciences report which concluded that "In little more than two decades DDT has prevented 500 million deaths due to malaria, that would otherwise have been inevitable.'' (Ames and Gold give this reference as National Academy of Sciences, U.S.A.,
The Life Sciences: Recent Progress and Application to Human Affairs, the World of Biological Research, Requirement for the Future, 1970, Committee on Research in the Life Sciences, Washington, DC, p 526.)Today (see Access to Energy 24, No. 12, p 4 for references), hundreds of millions of people suffer unnecessarily from malaria and one person (usually a child) dies every 12 seconds from this disease. Most of these deaths are the direct result of the baseless rationing of chemical technology by the United States government - the ban of DDT. The children we are killing, however, do not vote in our elections.
8. "Pesticides and other synthetic chemicals are disrupting hormones.'' The hormonal effects of ordinarily ingested natural chemicals are millions of times higher than for synthetic chemicals.
9. "Regulation of low, hypothetical risks is effective in advancing public health.'' Besides costing, by the Environmental Protection Agency's own estimate, about $140 billion per year, the regulation of low, hypothetical risks has raised the cost of healthful foods, diminished access to life enhancing and life saving technology, and caused the deaths of millions of people through rationing of needed chemicals. The greatest contribution to public health that could be made by the EPA would be for it and its regulations to be abolished.
The 86 references and 5 tables in this article by Ames and Gold (both of whom can be reached at the National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences Center, University of California, Berkeley, CA 94720) are all the ammunition needed to demolish the myths about human environmental pollution and cancer.
| Top | Previous | Next |
"Cool Cars: Running Clean on Liquid Nitrogen'' by I. Peterson in
Science News 152, p 119 (1997) reports that two vehicles have been built that use evaporating liquid nitrogen as a steam substitute to drive their motors. This is lauded as a new approach to nonpolluting automobiles for California and also as a way of "cleaning'' the air of carbon dioxide and airborne particles during liquid nitrogen manufacture.The featured automobile is stripped to just enough frame and tires to hold one human, the motor, and the "fuel.'' This car can travel 15 miles at 20 miles per hour on 48 gallons of liquid nitrogen. At current prices in Southern Oregon, this is $125 worth of liquid nitrogen.
Reducing this price by half to allow for economies of scale, I calculate four dollars per mile or approximately 80 times the fuel cost for my 1983 GMC diesel Suburban. Compared to a current model automobile of weight comparable to the test car, the fuel cost is about 150-fold higher (300-fold at current prices).
Even if they give the fuel away, however, there is another small problem. In order to drive the same distance (1,000 miles) that my Suburban travels on 40 gallons of fuel, the test car will require 11 tons of liquid nitrogen. Eleven tons of fuel (on a very large trailer) will drop my fuel efficiency to at least a factor of four below the test car, so now I need 40 tons of fuel. This is approximately the capacity of the tractor-trailer trucks that are used to distribute fuel to service stations. These trucks require even more fuel. Let us assume a factor of two.
So, we estimate that this new technology will give us a range of about 500 miles if we all travel in tractor-trailer fuel trucks and pay about 1000-fold more for our fuel. Not to worry - they are tinkering with ways to make it better - probably by means of lubrication with a fat tax-financed research grant. As to the ancillary advantage of cleaning the atmosphere of carbon dioxide, it will be necessary to liquefy about 50% of the atmosphere of the entire Earth to reduce carbon dioxide levels to those of the 1940s. The energy for this liquification and for storage of the resulting carbon will need to be produced without the use of hydrocarbon fuels.
The only advantage of this method of propulsion is that its development will not lead to peudoenvironmentalist demonization of nitrogen. The only technologies selected for demonization are those that do cost-effective and practical work. This one does not.
| Top | Previous | Next |
On March 1, 1954 a thermonuclear bomb test named Bravo Shot -Operation Castle in the Marshall Islands accidentally exposed about 300 Marshall Island residents and U. S. military personnel to dangerously high levels of radioactive fallout. Unprotected by potassium iodide supplements (now available to French citizens, but not to most Americans) many of the exposed individuals, especially the children, developed thyroid tumors and other thyroid abnormalities.
These people have been studied extensively during subsequent years as summarized in "Historical Events Associated with Fallout from Bravo Shot - Operation Castle and 25 Y of Medical Findings'' by E. P. Cronkite, R. A. Conrad. and V. P. Bond,
Health Physics 73, No. 1, pp 176-189 (1997).Although some of these people suffered short-term depression of blood production, beta burns on their skin, and measurable internal contamination by fission products in addition to thyroid damage, the authors found, "Survival curves for the people exposed on Rongelap, Ailinginae, Utirik, and Rongelap unexposed people show there is no significant difference. Actually of those exposed on Rongelap and Ail-inginae, there was a slightly higher fraction alive in 1986.''
Now that America is safe from nuclear attack because most foreign arsenals of nuclear weapons are in the hands of the peace-loving leaders who burned the Russian Parliament, leveled Chechnya, and cleansed Tiananmen Square, we seem only to need potassium iodide to protect us from the odd terrorist or accident. Radiation hormesis will apparently at least cancel fallout radiation effects on lifespan.
| Top | Previous | Next |
| Top | Previous | Next |