Personal survival insurance should not, however, become a reason for being. Nor should the dangers of the modern world instill such pessimism that one is precluded from pursuing the positive goals of life. Some people sell their vision of a fearful future so vehemently as to convince listeners that "the end is near, so anything except survival preparations is pointless, and the normal pursuits of life are useless.'' Survival preparations should be viewed in the same way as life insurance. The insured does not visit the bank deposit box weekly to admire his life insurance policy and then attend frequent meetings where self-appointed gurus reassure him that the policy will soon be needed -perhaps, if all goes as expected, in the very near future. He buys the policy to protect his family; puts it away; and then pursues life positively - as though it will never be needed.

Stepping beyond Year 2000 personal survivalism - both sensible and overdone - there is an additional consideration that is, however, a serious cause for concern. We pursue the benefits of science, technology, and free enterprise with physical resources. Therefore, an essential part of our positive pursuits must involve resource management -the large resources of corporations in which we may be involved and also our own personal resources, which give us the individual economic freedom to choose our work in accordance with our own goals.

Year 2000 fears - whether or not they are justified - are beginning to pose a significant threat to the resources with which we work. Consider, for example, the current economic scene. Deflation in basic commodities has become a rout, with oil selling at all-time low real prices, base metals at or below the prices of production, and agricultural commodities beginning to resemble the 1930s with Iowa corn near $2 per bushel and Iowa hogs selling between seven and ten cents per pound. Meanwhile, the stock market is averaging about 30 times earnings -with many of the hottest stocks having no earnings at all, so their price-to-earnings ratio is essentially infinite. The unwinding of these extremes without severe economic dislocations will be a balancing act requiring extraordinary wisdom in both the private and public sectors.

Enter the Year 2000. What prudent investor, in view of current manias, will not consider lightening his market exposure at least a little as the magic date approaches? Yet, what will be the effect if investors, on average, decide to reduce their holdings by, say, 10% and postpone purchases until after the date change? This sort of concerted, coordinated action could easily set off an uncontrollable deflation in the stock market. It is not the realities of the Year 2000 change that we have to fear - it is, instead, the effect of coordinated human fear upon reality.

How does one preserve liquid assets across such a discontinuity? One conventional conservative answer to this question is to park assets in Treasury Bills and Bonds until the dust settles. In other words, loan your money to the U. S. Congress and President. One advantage of this choice is the daily televised opportunity to see your funds at work as the guarantors of those funds struggle through their continuing soap-opera battles with such questions as whether or not adultery, perjury, and obstruction of justice are O.K.

At the other end of the investment spectrum is the purchase of basic commodities and gold - hoping (without real justification) that somehow these substances are nearing the bottom of their deflationary cliff. After all, gold and silver are real money. Just ask any American - but try to pick one over 60 who appears to have a very long memory.

Our abilities to pursue advances in science and technology in future years will, to an unusual extent, depend critically upon how we manage our liquid resources during 1999.

The Wall Street Journal, November 27, 1998, p A10, carried a fascinating editorial by David Schoenbrod discussing this subject with reference to the American monetary debate a century ago. Entitled "The Yellow Brick Beltway,'' this article contains a wealth of information related to Year 2000 decisions. It reads: "The release this month of 'The Wizard of Oz' in a digitally juiced-up film format should prompt more people to read the even more wonderful book. Their reading pleasure will be enhanced by understanding that L. Frank Baum wrote the book as a parable whose point is more poignant today than when it was published in 1900 - that the wizards of Washington are a bunch of charlatans running a scam on the little people of America.