It has long been established that optimization of the quality and quantity of human life is a desirable goal. Regardless of the recent fad of new age animal and earth worship, sensible people still agree that this goal is of great importance. Therefore, most reasoned debates about the value of science and technology revolve around the effects upon human well-being and longevity. We have become idiomatically accustomed to speaking of preventing fatalities as, for example, in the article about fatalities from misappropriation of resources on pages 1 and 2 above. We cannot, of course, actually prevent fatalities. We can only postpone them. Death is, so far, an unavoidable consequence of life. For this reason, I converted the fatality estimates at the end of that article into a measure of cumulative years of human life. An action that reduces the lifespan of 100 people by ten years is much worse than one that reduces the lifespans of 1000 people by one day. The latter action causes 10-fold more fatalities, but the former costs 365-fold more days of life. The three figures on this page illustrate human mortality and its change by beneficial human activities. These figures are reproduced from A. B. Robinson & L. R. Robinson,
The first figure shows the aging curve for a population comprised of American males as calculated from life expectancy compilations of the U.S. Public Health Service. This population has an intrinsic lifespan of about 90 years. The molecular mechanism by which this lifespan (and the lifespans of other living things) is determined is unknown and is one of the great unsolved problems of biology. It may be that one of the many current hypotheses about this is correct.
Notice, however, that most men do not reach their intrinsic lifespan. If we could remove the factors that lead to these earlier deaths, then the aging curve would be changed as is indicated in the second figure. Most of the industrial, medical, environmental, and personal factors that are discussed with respect to human fatalities relate to the postponement of death, so that each person can reach approximately this intrinsic lifespan. The goal is for each person to live a full, healthful and vibrant life of maximum length and, when death is no longer avoidable, to die with a minimum of suffering.
With regard especially to degenerative diseases, early deaths are not just associated with a loss of life. In effect, life is compressed into a shorter time. Smoking, for example, causes a compression of life so that smokers tend to age faster by about 10% per pack of cigarettes smoked per day. It is not just the later years of life that are lost. Parts of the earlier periods of life are lost as well.
Depending upon the nature of the molecular process that determines intrinsic lifespan, it may be possible to markedly increase the limit of 90 years. It is hoped that molecular biology will eventually discover this process and that it will turn out to be easily adjustable.
In the meantime, experiments on animals suggest that modest adjustments in intrinsic lifespan of about one-third may be possible by systematic changes in living conditions. This possibility is being examined by empirical experiments on such factors as diet. One example of this is work on diet restriction during the second half of life along the lines pioneered in rats by C. M. Mckay. See J. Nutrition, vol. 10 (1935) pp 67-79 and vol. 18 (1939) pp 1-13. The potential of these efforts, which do not require that the biology of aging be understood on a molecular basis, is illustrated in the third figure.
The arrow in the second figure points up to illustrate beneficial influences in preventing early deaths. It could also point down to illustrate negative influences. The direction of this arrow lies at the heart of debates over the impact of technology upon human well being.
It is definitively known that economic freedom and free enterprise, the entire electric power industry including nuclear power, the chemical industry, and most other aspects of technological progress diminish the risk of early death and contribute to the positive direction indicated in the second figure. There are always risks that technology may cause harm by accident, terrorism, or war, but these risks can be reduced to acceptable levels by technological safeguards. Unfortunately these safeguards, such as the provision of a realistic American civil defense system, are sometimes not implemented.
It is also well known that economic slavery by socialism, fascism, or their various mutations and the diminution of technological progress has a negative influence on human lifespan. Ignorance or refusal to heed the discoveries of science such as is endemic in government agencies such as the Environmental Protection Agency also has a very negative influence.
These curves are not just sterile representations of academic interest. They represent hundreds of millions of shortened lives and early deaths. Each is an individual human tragedy somewhere in the world.
So far, technological progress has kept this arrow pointing steadily upward. Pseudoenvironmentalism and political opportunism have blunted that progress and may soon reverse it. This can be prevented by a principled defense of human freedom and of scientific truth.
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Vol. 21, No. 6
Newsletter: Access to Energy Newsletter Archive Volume: Issues Issue/No.: Vol. 21, No. 6 Date: February 01, 1994 04:41 PM Title: Wild Cards
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