J. R. Christy and R. T. McNider,
Graph
a shows the actual temperature with a trend of - 0.04 °C per decade. Their estimate from sea temperature measurements of the effects of four El Niño events is given in b and subtracted from a to give c. Their estimate of the effects of volcanic eruptions by El Chichón and Mount Pinatubo is given in d and then subtracted from c to give a final corrected curve in e. This corrected curve has an upward trend of + 0.09 °C per decade.Not only is this + 0.09 °C value five-fold less than that predicted by the "global warming'' gurus, it is still affected by such mundane matters as the variable intensity of the sun as the authors note.
This is honest science as starkly opposed to the offering by S. H. Schneider,
Science 263 p341 (1994). He claims that increases in atmospheric temperature of + 0.5 °C per century, as has occurred in the 20th century, have only happened about once or twice per thousand years. He estimates, therefore, that there is an 80 to 90 percent probability that this increase was man-caused by carbon dioxide.He conceals, however, the fact that the 20th century increase occurred before most of the increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide. This reduces his probability to zero. In looking only at the period between 1979 and 1993, Christy and McNider at least chose a time interval that could be affected by CO2.
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Vol. 21, No. 7
Newsletter: Access to Energy Newsletter Archive Volume: Issues Issue/No.: Vol. 21, No. 7 Date: March 01, 1994 05:38 PM Title: Death of a Messenger
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