GAPOLOGY

Gapology is the science of gaps, and gapologists are the people who project supply and demand curves, come out with a gap and ponder how to fill it. So says E.J. Mitchell. professor of business economics at the University of Michigan, in his high-caliber book US Energy Policy: A Primer, by far the best book on the economics of the present energy crisis we have yet seen. He has some news for the doomsdayers: "America has had less than a dozen years' supply of oil left for a hundred years." What the gapologists do not understand is that a free market will clear without gaps. Shortages and surpluses, says Prof. Mitchell, may present a problem to consumers and producers, but they are not a problem for the government: They are the policies of the government.

For those who prefer easier reading of some of the same fundamental ideas, we highly recommend Gold and Black Gold by Leslie Snyder, the first third of which is devoted to the roots of the energy crisis. In the remainder of the book, the author shows the connection between energy and gold and gives very practical advice on how investors can profit from the energy crisis. (We think her advice is highly persuasive, but we are not an investment letter and will leave it at that.) $7.50, published by Exposition Press, Hicksville, New York.

There has also been a rash of energy reports, computer simulations and scenarios. The final report of the Ford Foundation's Energy Policy Project repeats Mr Freeman's previous bilge (see May issue) and is not worth wasting space on. The FEA's long awaited masterplan for Project Independence is disappointing, for the 800 pages of this master nonplan present only well known options and a lot of shoulder shrugging. The one report that is short, to the point, and presents hard numbers together with many illuminating charts and tables is the Lawrence Livermore Laboratory's Assessment of US Energy Options for Project Independence. Though not quite free of gapology, it is at first sight recognizable as the work of no-nonsense scientists, not equivocating bureaucrats. $4 from NTIS, 5285 Port Royal Rd., Springfleld, VA 22151.