Bruce-Brigg's analysis is on the sociological level, but many of its conclusions are confirmed by a report based on system engineering. A group of six scientists from the Lawrence Livermore Lab, headed by Dr G.C. Werth, have worked out an incisive paper on Energy Research and Development Priorities, and though they presented it at the American Nuclear Meeting (New Orleans, June 10), it is mainly concerned with transportation.
Like Bruce-Briggs, they find that collective transportation makes sense only in high density areas, i.e., in central cities. In the lower density areas, and this includes the "urban rings" round the cities, people will continue to opt for individual transport by the automobile. The migration to the central cities is now over, and Americans are rushing to the urban rings; by 1985 they will contain 70% of the population. Like Bruce-Briggs, the authors note that commuting to work is a minor problem: Only 19% in metropolitan areas now commute from the ring to the city, and only 7% commute in the opposite direction. A majority of 74% lives and works in the same region either in the ring or in the central city. The average of all metropolitan areas except New York shows 85% using the auto for getting to work in the ring, and 74% in the central city. Clearly the automobile, even in metropolitan areas, cannot simply be replaced by collective transit.
What is wrong with the automobile, say the authors, is the fact that 95% of the transportation energy utilizes the internal combustion engine, which is entirely dependent on oil, and this is a vulnerability not true of other sectors: Power generation and residential, commercial or industrial consumption do not rely on a single fuel, and are now moving away from oil.
Transportation has no such choice at present, for there are no existing technologies for using coal, shale or uranium at competitive prices. Gasoline from coal may cost as much as 75% more than from imported oil, and the electric car lacks speed and range.
What can be done about this? Get domestic oil out of the ground more rapidly, say the authors, while research and development of alternate fuels gets underway. In the authors' opinion, the most promising, but underfunded, areas are synthetic gasoline from oil shale and coal, methanol from coal, methanol-fueled vehicles, engine optimization, and electric vehicles.
The presentation (main ideas accompanying a series of slides) is available for $5.45 from NTIS, 5285 Port Royal Rd., Springfield, VA 22151.
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Vol. 3, No. 1
Newsletter: Access to Energy Newsletter Archive Volume: Volume 3 Issue/No.: Vol. 3, No. 1 Date: September 01, 1975 04:55 PM (For actual publication date see newsletter.) Title: Wheat for No Oil
Copyright © 2004 - Access to Energy Newsletter Archive
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