WHY HAVE HEAT PUMPS NOT TAKEN OVER?

So why hasn't it been used all along? Because there was no Lovins to tell us about it?

No: Heat pumps were trying to capture a share of the heating market in the 1950's, at a time when Lovins' understanding of thermodynamics was much better than it is now, for as a toddler at least he did not misunderstand it. There were, in fact, 43 different brands of heat pumps on the market between 1950 and 1960, but they failed, mostly because of low reliability. A heat pump is exposed to much higher stresses than separate heating and air conditioning systems.

And why have they not taken over now that fuel prices have increased so dramatically? Because, once again, the Second Law of Thermodynamics says nothing about consumer demand, consumer attitudes or economics. The first cost of a heat pump is higher than that of a furnace, and even if the economics of heat pumps were not adversely affected by government price controls of oil and gas (with the schizoid approval of Commoner, Lovins and the other thermodynamic philosophers), most people still prefer to pay higher operating costs over a long period than shell out a large investment cost in one chunk.

This preference is, in fact, one of the major hurdles of soft(headed) energy sources. Even if solar collectors and windmills gave enough energy at all times (which they don't) and had no other technical troubles (which they do), most people would still prefer to pay a nickel or dime for a kilowatt hour supplied by their utility than pay thousands of dollars for an initial investment plus the maintenance and responsibility that comes with it.

If this were not so, people would have looms at home instead of buying ready made shirts, and they would make their own soap, and toothpaste, and leather, and shoes, and their own manure for organically growing their own endangered species. There are, of course, such people, and they tend to be enthusiastic supporters of solar energy, but have you noticed something about them?

You have to be rather rich to be able to live cheaply.

[More: L.R. Glicksman, "Heat Pumps: Off and Running. . . Again," Technology Review (MIT), June/July 1978 (detailed colored diagrams, future trends, advanced heat pumps); V.E. Smay, "Heat Pumps More sense now for more homes" , Popular Science July 1978 (practical advice).]