WHY LOVINS LOVES THEM

And we have more news for him. Dr. Ferdinand Cap, professor of theoretical physics at the University of Innsbruck, Austria, has analyzed the problem of time in introducing new energy technologies. The rate at which new power plants can be built to replace oil-fired ones depends, among other factors, on the energetic break-even time (the time necessary to repay the energy invested in the materials and construction of the plant) and on the energy yield (energy produced per energy invested). Unlike energy genius Lovins, who is able to concoct transition strategies out of thin air, Prof. Cap is forced to use differential equations with experimentally measured constants.

What he finds is that the most advantageous strategy of building new power plants is using the energy of the fossils now at our disposal for the construction of hydroelectric and nuclear plants; this is about 50 times better than the next most favorable strategy of constructing more fossil-fired plants. The least favorable is solar power; its break-even time (in Central Europe) is 38 years, and even under the most optimistic assumptions it is questionable whether the energy could be paid back over the next 50 years.

[Source: Preprint made available by private communication.]

* * SCIENTIST'S PLEA, BUREAUCRAT'S REPLY * *

Dr Andrew Hull [of Brookhaven National Lab] to NRC:

[With regard to restart of TMI Unit 1] I write on the basis of my two decades of experience as a health physicist, with a particular interest in reactor related environmental radiation and an avocational interest in risk assessment, to urge a prompt favorable decision ... Insofar as the issue revolves around health and safety, the production of power by alternative fossil plants would appear to produce a greater risk to their surrounding populations than would the production of this power by TMI-1, so that in a sense the local residents are exporting this greater risk of the power they are using onto other more distant persons.

(Gist of) NRC's reply to Dr Hull (3/3/81):

...While we are, of course, concerned about financial impacts on consumers and stockholders, the NRC's primary responsibility is the assurance of public health and safety... Your comments and interest in this matter are appreciated. Herbert N. Berkow, Chief Management Analysis Branch, Planning and Program Analysis Staff, Office of Nuclear Reactor Regulation, US Nuclear...