SO WHAT?

So plenty.

If the hypothesis proves right, prospectors will not confine their exploration for gas to organic-rich strata; they will look elsewhere, and mainly deeper. Most of it would be deep down beyond economically feasible recovery; but who needs "most of it" when what might be within reach is a vast amount?

"If methane has been a significant contributor [to the enormous quantities of methane associated with the carbon degassing of the earth]," write Gold and Soter, "even the fraction residing in the high-pressure domain on the way up may still be very large compared with all other reserves of fuel."

Until methods are worked out that will virtually prevent dry holes, wildcatters would have to be nuts to drill at such depths.

But then, there is something that drives them both nuts and to greater depths: government regulation. Not primordial methane, but primordial mindlessness made the 1978 Natural Gas Policy Act deregulate gas only from below 15,000 ft. That is where drilling can cost $15 million a hole; and it makes explorers drill past the cheaper gas in shallow zones. "Like giving farmers a bonus to raise corn in New Mexico while keeping prices low in Iowa," says Natural Gas Association President David Foster.

On the other hand, deep gas, in BTU'S, is the equivalent of oil at $57 a barrel, and a recent well drilled in Oklahoma at a cost of $6.5 million paid for itself in seven weeks. But such gas wells are exceptions; the rule is to go for oil, where profits are maximized more easily. The number of new oil wells drilled has risen drastically since 1978 (41% over last year in the first half of 1981), but the number of new gas wells has declined; for what do wildcatters know about oil and gas? Dingell and Metzenbaum know what's good for them.

Congressman Phil Gramm (D-Tex), whom we are proud to have as a subscriber, has introduced a bill to decontrol gas prices for all wells drilled after Jan. 81, phase out controls of gas prices over three years, and abolish demand restraints.

Meanwhile the wildcatters are drilling deeper. "Three quarters of the nation's remaining gas-bearing sediments lie below 15,000 feet," says Robert A. Hefner III, as his rigs drill for gas 5 miles under the Oklahoma plains.

He could be quite wrong. If the primordial gas hypothesis checks out, the fraction is much larger.

[More: A. Stuart: "The blazing battle to free natural gas," Fortune, 19 Oct 81; "Gas decontrol looks more like a winner," Business Week, 31 Aug. 1981]