THE BOOK OF FATE

The two lines correspond to two waves of nuclear development in the US; there is a gap between them, roughly from 1978 to 1981, which includes the 1979 TMI incident.

But the curve (or at least its 1970-80 part) could have been predicted in the early 1970's; does that mean that TMI was preordained in the Book of Fate?

Then presumably the antinukes and media would have used some other, equally trivial, excuse to scream and panic hysterically, the nuclear industry would have been equally timid in defending itself, the price of nuclear plants would have been equally driven up by NRC-dictated retrofits and GAP-directed barratry, and so forth. The social, economic, political and cultural forces were in place and ready to be triggered by something. The fact that we have a poor understanding of these forces does not mean that they are preordained or that they are of astrological origin.

Here is another example of this type of correlation, also found by Marchetti. The cycles of energy consumption (deviation from the general trend) in the US correlate well with the homicide rates, which have a tendency to reach a maximum during the downward phase of energy. Does slowing energy consumption entice people to murder, or do murders slow energy consumption?

Neither, of course. The energy ups and downs are indicators of economic booms and recessions, and the maximum homicide rate during slowing economic activity could be connected with a phenomenon well known to historians: social unrest is not caused so much by low living standards as by disappointed expectations. (Most Third World peoples are both hungry and docile; in Colorado, prisoners rioted because their dinner was not tasty, and the dessert spoiled.)

Note that this particular interpretation could be quite wrong; but like the correct interpretation (whatever it is), it shows that such correlations need not reduce us to Shirley Maclaines who substitute astrology and mysticism for thinking.

[More: much of the above is based on preprints and lectures by Prof. Marchetti (IIASA, A-2361 Laxenburg, Austria). This newsletter will announce details when they are published in generally accessible journals.]