TELLER ON NUCLEAR WINTER

The British weekly Nature (11/14) brings Edward Teller's brief analysis "Climatic change with nuclear war." Sagan quotes from a recent report by the Intl. Council of Sci. Unions, omitting its conclusions that no nuclear winter is to be expected in the Southern Hemisphere, and that significant temperature declines could occur only in mid-continental areas in northern latitudes, but no worse than those in fall or early winter. Sagan & Co. had predicted a minimum average hemispheric temperature of -23 degrees C (-9.4 degrees F). Sagan's data on the US stockpiled megatonnage in 1955-80 shows a wildly increasing curve; in reality the US stockpile has, over the last two decades, declined by 25% in the number of weapons, and by 75% in the total explosive yield. The nuclear winter scenario is modeled after Alvarez' theory of the collision with an asteroid 65 million years ago [AtE May 82, Jun 85], which exceeded both the energy and the smoke released in a nuclear war by a factor of 1,000.

Teller expresses his great concern about the direct and intended effects of nuclear war, "while Sagan has concentrated on side effects. These side effects are obviously dwarfed by an event for which there is geologic evidence."

The paper by America's greatest living scientist covers only one page, has four figures and is easily understandable. Nature should be available in any college library: it is the type of material with which to confront the Campus Barons mentioned in the editorial.