From a letter commenting on the Chunnel [AtE Jan 86] by Hugh Douglas, editor of the Minergia newsletter on minerals and energy (235 Montgomery St/#2300, San Francisco, CA 94104):
"Working on my dissertation The Impact of Technological and Social Change on the Mining Industry I observed that society continues to invest in technologies and ideas long after new ideas have proven their worth. For example:
1) In the US, canals were still being built after railroads had shown economies in transport;
2) Some of the heaviest and most powerful steam locomotives were being built to haul freight over the Rocky Mountains after diesel engines had proved their worth;
3) After World War II, large passenger ocean liners were being launched after the economies of aviation had been demonstrated;
4) Britain was late in budding autoroutes; more money was being poured into railroading in the 1960s than into motorways;
5) Until recently the UK Telephone agency kept on investing in additions to electromechanical switching rather than electronic digital switching
"It is a curious phenomenon explained by the fact that decision making on investing in older technologies is made by those at least 50 years or more old. Their experience lies in old technologies, and if, in addition, society has clogged arteries, then the new technologies take a long time to grab a foothold.
The Chunnel is a case in point. I see signs of a new technological revolution coming in aviation that will drastically lower costs of flying passengers and freight (excepting bulk commodities). These new technologies are: radical new aircraft design to increase lift for short take-off and maneuverability; propfan engines that are half the weight of jet engines, and use 50-60% less fuels at jet speeds; lightweight materials such as aluminum-lithium alloys and fiber-reinforced plastics; and finally falling oil prices that will cut the cost of jet fuel, now nearly 50% of operating costs of jets.
Will the Chunnel be obsolete shortly after completion? A gnawing hunch tells me yes."
[A comment on the decision makers over 50: Whenever I visited a nuclear plant, I was struck by the low average age of its engineers; but whenever I read an advertisement by the Edison Electric Institute, I am reminded of the old Duchess (Peter Sellers) ruling the little country that had just stolen the atom bomb in The Mouse That Roared. "And remember me," she said to the US ambassador as he was leaving, "to Mr. Coolidge."]
|
Vol. 13, No. 6
Newsletter: Access to Energy Newsletter Archive Volume: Issues Issue/No.: Vol. 13, No. 6 Date: November 29, 2004 03:59 PM Title: Review of a review
Copyright © 2004 - Access to Energy Newsletter Archive
|