1) It is now years since Fred Singer and Cesare Marchetti predicted the present oil glut, the collapse of oil prices and the undoing of OPEC; yet only a few months ago C. Flavin, one of the intellects in the doomsday-preaching Worldwatch Institute, wrote "The danger is that the Persian Gulf may move into the driver's seat at a time when world oil resources are more limited than at any time in recent history."
Flavin, who with Lester Brown and ex-roi soleil Denis Hayes pesters people with dire warnings of the world reaching the bottom of the barrel unless it is saved by windmills and chicken manure, is unlikely to have the slightest inkling that the tyranny of oil may indeed return, mainly due to the policies advocated by his crowd.
Mark Mills' study The Return of the Age of Oil (summary available from Committee for Energy Awareness, 1725 I St. NW/#500, Wash. DC 20006) points out that 50% of all non-transportation energy in the US is devoted to producing electricity, and that 30% of the decline in US oil imports since 1980 is due to fuel switching by electric utilities; but the bad news is that the largest part of their unused, available spare capacity is oil-fired¾the fraction amounts to more than 90% in the Western states (also in Illinois and Wisconsin). If new nuclear or coal-fired capacity is not built to replace older plants wearing out and to meet increased electricity demand, this oil-fired spare capacity (which needs no regulatory battles, licenses or litigation, and is free from harassment by politicians, the press and street mobs) will gradually be brought on line¾at an average cost to the ratepayer of $10 billion a year over the next 40 years. As things look now, that cost will be willingly approved by the political appointees of the Public Utility Commissions, who spend other peoples money to establish their own image as consumer protectors.
2) As a member of the protest organization SOS (Sakharov-Orlov-Shcharansky), I am delighted that one of the three has gained freedom. But physicist Orlov and thousands of other courageous dissidents remain in the Gulag, and Nobel Prize winner Sakharov is being brutalized in internal exile, while US scientific and other organizations crawl before their jailers. In a statement smuggled to the West in 1980, Sakharov says "One of the causes of the weakening position of the West is its dependence on oil supplies... The geopolitics of the Soviet Union is aimed precisely at this weak point." With collapsing oil prices and reduced production, the Soviets are now caught in the wheels of their own mill. They are short of hard currency, but US foreign "policy" fails to take advantage of it. Refusal of credits could put on the pressure to free more political prisoners¾in language the Soviet Mafiosi understand.
3) The Saudis blame the oil debacle, quite rightly, on fuel switching by Western utilities. At the recent Geneva meeting, OPEC officials blamed nuclear power for the permanent loss-of-market of 6 million barrels a day, or 1/3 of their sales. In the US, nuclear power has overtaken gas and is now second only to coal in producing electric Power. France now gets 2/3 Of its electricity from the atom; Sweden, Finland and Belgium approximately ½; West Germany 1/3; and Japan ¼.
In the US, the antinukes have gone to lend Gulagchev a hand in trying to stop Star Shield; they consider nuclear electric power dying or dead. But the funeral is about to be startled by an embarrassing guest. Soon¾perhaps before the next issue is out¾the 100th US nuclear plant will on line.
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Vol. 13, No. 7
Newsletter: Access to Energy Newsletter Archive Volume: Issues Issue/No.: Vol. 13, No. 7 Date: November 29, 2004 04:15 PM Title: Onward and outward
Copyright © 2004 - Access to Energy Newsletter Archive
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