has the frightening word "cancer" in its name (and it is a cancer), but, with one exception, that is the only thing frightening about it. About 99% of all skin cancers are curable, and the remaining 1% which is fatal is almost always due to neglect, i.e. not starting treat-ment in time, though the slow growth of skin carcinoma gives plen-ty of time and warning. More than 500,000 new cases are diagnos-ed in the US each year, and no less than 1 in 7 Americans will con-tract it in their lifetime. Thus, this prevalent type of skin cancer is no big deal.
The exception is malignant melanoma, which is both fast-spreading and dangerous.
But now to the point: it is only the non-melanoma, i.e. the no-big-deal type of skin cancer that is affected by UV radiation and hence possibly linked to the ozone layer; melanoma is almost cer-tainly unaffected by it. How do we know?
The link of UV to non-melanoma skin cancer is proven by 1) UV irradiation of laboratory animals, 2) a pronounced dependence on latitude (there is a 150% increase from Minnesota to El Paso), 3) its successful prevention by protective clothing, sunscreens and parasols, 4) its incidence in proportion to the time spent sunbathing.
[Point 2) involves a bit of racism, as it applies only to whites. Dark pigments in the skin, e.g., in the blacks of Africa, protect against skin cancer. To the contrary, the highest incidence of skin cancer among whites is in Australia, especially in its northern parts.]
That melanoma is almost certainly unaffected by UV radiation is evidenced by: 1) through 4) the failure of the four tests above, 5) the appearance of melanomas on unexposed parts of the skin, 6) the steady increase of melanomas, for unknown reasons, for as long as records have been kept (by 80% over the last 7 years in the US, by a factor of 8 over the last 60 years in Connecticut).
Why, then, the almost before "certain?" Because it is difficult to prove a negative without more knowledge. The four points for non-melanomas are unambiguous, but the six points for the other type have a possible flaw: it could still be (to manufacture a very silly ex-ample) that melanomas are indeed due to UV radiation, but only via bacteria whose ancestors were irradiated by it and whose fertility increases with latitude, thus masking test no. 2. To put it more simply, before we can prove a negative, we must fully understand the phenomenon
¾which is hardly the case with cancer.[More: F.S. Singer and C.C. Crandall. "Assessing stratospheric ozone," The World & I, Sept. 1987, (very good and readable); R.J. Cicerone, "Changes in stratospheric ozone," Science, 3 Jul 87 (esoteric).]
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Vol. 15, No. 1
Newsletter: Access to Energy Newsletter Archive Volume: Issues Issue/No.: Vol. 15, No. 1 Date: November 30, 2004 02:04 PM Title: Hypocrite's dilemma
Copyright © 2004 - Access to Energy Newsletter Archive
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