INDUSTRIAL ENERGY CONSUMPTION

[GRAPH: electricity, economic output and direct fuel curves are plotted vs year from 1966-1986 Elec. & economic output show same pattern. Direct fuel is decreasing].(1966 = 100)

This would be pleasant news to an old electrical engi- neer, were it not for two ug- ly negations: the US spare electric power capacity is rapidly decreasing, and most of it is oil-fired. And there is worse news in the CSIS report. The "gas bubble," the expected natural gas surplus for the late 80s and early 90s will just disappear by increased power consump-tion. Canada's gas pipeline capacity is already used up in the winter months for its domestic market. All of which leaves only nuclear or oil; and that, while the political process in the US is being pro-gramed by the media, means oil only.

Here is a typical figure from the report, assuming that no nuclear or coal-fired plants are constructed, gas is allowed to grow, and maximum use is made of co-generation and other non-utility sources. Depending on the growth rate, the present oil imports (about 600,000 b/d) will double or more than quadruple by 1995, as shown in the figure. But even if all current nuclear and coal-fired construction were completed on schedule, and sufficient gas were available to fill all gas-fired capacity before oil, growth could not ex-ceed about 2.5% without substantially increasing oil imports.

[DIAGRAM: MMB/day oil for elec. production vs year from 1985 to 1995]

It seems unlikely that the US will follow the example of other countries in going nuclear in time. [The Netherlands, which were once touted by the soft-headed-energy crowd for their (long since abandoned) gigantic tidal-cum-windmill plants, is now seeking nuclear plant proposals to avoid oil and gas shortfalls in the mid-90s.] When the shortfall arrives, it will still take six years to build new plants even if lawyers are outlawed. To bridge the gap, there will be only the good advice of Cuomo and Dukakis.

Such is my opinion on this gray area, and I am willing to revise it if the evidence warrants it.

There are, of course, those who want no government at all, not even as the only wielder of legal force against criminals or aggressors. But in today's world, their ideal has been attained in but a single country: Lebanon.